PitchMath
Championship · 2025St. Andrew's @ Knighthead Park

Birmingham City 1–3 Middlesbrough · Championship

1–3Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Middlesbrough won 1–3.

Shots
1110
Shots on target
73
Expected goals
0.611.07
Possession
60%40%

Full time

What the match recorded

Middlesbrough beat Birmingham City 3–1. Recorded in this match (Birmingham City – Middlesbrough): shots 11–10, shots on target 7–3, expected goals 0.61–1.07, possession 60%–40%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Birmingham City have a visible home split

strong

Birmingham City's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

17.9 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season14.1 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots17.9 shots/match14.1 shots/match12.4 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Birmingham City's recent record differs from the season

weak

Birmingham City's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1 goal/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.31 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1 goal/match1.31 goals/match1.33 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Middlesbrough.

5.01 days ▲Rest daysBirmingham City · Middlesbrough6.01 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricBirmingham CityMiddlesbroughBaseline
Rest days5.01 days6.01 days—
Matches last 14 days2 matches3 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots11 shots10 shotsBirmingham City 11 shots, Middlesbrough 10 shots
  • Shots on target7 shots3 shotsBirmingham City 7 shots, Middlesbrough 3 shots
  • Expected goals0.61 xG1.07 xGBirmingham City 0.61 xG, Middlesbrough 1.07 xG
  • Possession60%40%Birmingham City 60%, Middlesbrough 40%
  • Corners6 corners2 cornersBirmingham City 6 corners, Middlesbrough 2 corners
  • Fouls11 fouls12 foulsBirmingham City 11 fouls, Middlesbrough 12 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Hayden Hackney · Middlesbrough · 21′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedAidan Morris · Middlesbrough · 22′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedHayden Hackney · Middlesbrough · 34′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedChristoph Klarer · Birmingham City · 82′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedTommy Doyle · Birmingham City · 3′ · 0.02 xG · on targetHayden Hackney · Middlesbrough · 32′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedTommy Doyle · Birmingham City · 89′ · 0.02 xG · on targetChristoph Klarer · Birmingham City · 43′ · 0.03 xG · on targetKai Wagner · Birmingham City · 47′ · 0.03 xG · on targetMarvin Ducksch · Birmingham City · 54′ · 0.03 xG · on targetAdilson Malanda · Middlesbrough · 59′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedAidan Morris · Middlesbrough · 67′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedTommy Doyle · Birmingham City · 85′ · 0.04 xG · on targetTommy Conway · Middlesbrough · 8′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedPatrick Roberts · Birmingham City · 12′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedDemarai Gray · Birmingham City · 10′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedMarvin Ducksch · Birmingham City · 48′ · 0.13 xG · goalMarvin Ducksch · Birmingham City · 42′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedDavid Strelec · Middlesbrough · 60′ · 0.15 xG · goalMatt Targett · Middlesbrough · 26′ · 0.21 xG · goalMatt Targett · Middlesbrough · 13′ · 0.53 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Birmingham City: 11 shots, 7 on target, 0.60 xG. Middlesbrough: 10 shots, 3 on target, 1.05 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.751.50′HT90′Marvin Ducksch · Birmingham City · 48′Matt Targett · Middlesbrough · 13′Matt Targett · Middlesbrough · 26′David Strelec · Middlesbrough · 60′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Birmingham City 0.60 xG · Middlesbrough 1.05 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0Birmingham City
0Draws
5Middlesbrough
Middlesbrough — Birmingham City · Championship2–1
Birmingham City — Middlesbrough · Championship0–1
Middlesbrough — Birmingham City · Championship1–0
Birmingham City — Middlesbrough · Championship1–3
Middlesbrough — Birmingham City · Championship1–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Birmingham City favored in 2 of 11 directional metrics · Middlesbrough in 6 · 3 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Birmingham City35 matchesMiddlesbrough35 matches
1.31 goals/matchGoals scored35/35▲ 1.54 goals/match
1.31 goals/matchGoals allowed35/35▲ 1 goal/match
1.43 xG/match ▲Expected goals35/351.24 xG/match
14.1 shots/matchShots34/3414.6 shots/match
4 shots/matchShots on target34/34▲ 4.47 shots/match
54.5%Possession34/34● 58.6%
5.79 corners/matchCorners34/34● 6.12 corners/match
11.2 fouls/matchFouls34/349.88 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples35 / 35home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Tue, 3 Mar 2026, 00:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Championship

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsBirmingham CityMiddlesbrough
CompetitionChampionshipChampionship 2025/26
Head-to-headBirmingham City — Middlesbrough
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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