PitchMath
Serie B · 2026

São Bernardo 1–1 Náutico · Serie B

1–1Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

São Bernardo and Náutico drew 1–1.

30-second read

What the record shows

The story here is recent context rather than season averages: A compressed recent schedule is recorded for São Bernardo, Nautico Recife. Alongside it: nautico Recife's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. Limitation: Paired coverage is below the configured metric threshold.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

moderate

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for São Bernardo, Nautico Recife.

2.85 days ▲Rest daysSão Bernardo · Nautico Recife4 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricSão BernardoNautico RecifeBaseline
Rest days2.85 days4 days—
Matches last 14 days3 matches3 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Nautico Recife's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Nautico Recife's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.8 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.13 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.8 goals/match1.13 goals/match1.11 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1São Bernardo
0Draws
0Náutico
Náutico — São Bernardo · Serie B0–3

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: São Bernardo favored in 5 of 11 directional metrics · Náutico in 4 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

São Bernardo24 matchesNáutico24 matches
1.38 goals/match ▲Goals scored24/241.13 goals/match
1.13 goals/matchGoals allowed24/241.13 goals/match
1.08 xG/matchExpected goals9/71.03 xG/match
13.4 shots/matchShots9/7▲ 14.7 shots/match
5.33 shots/match ▲Shots on target9/74 shots/match
50.6%Possession9/7● 54.3%
4.33 corners/matchCorners9/7● 4.57 corners/match
10.2 fouls/matchFouls9/717.1 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade C · Limited evidenceLimited evidence — limited
Season samples24 / 24home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Paired coverage is below the configured metric threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The completed-match sample is too small for broad style conclusions.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 22 Aug 2026, 23:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie B

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsSão BernardoNáutico
CompetitionSerie B
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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