PitchMath
Serie B · 2026

Vila Nova FC 2–1 Fortaleza · Serie B

2–1Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Vila Nova FC won 2–1.

30-second read

What the record shows

The story here is recent context rather than season averages: A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Vila Nova, Fortaleza EC. Alongside it: vila Nova's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. Limitation: Paired coverage is below the configured metric threshold.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

moderate

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Vila Nova, Fortaleza EC.

3 days ▲Rest daysVila Nova · Fortaleza EC3 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricVila NovaFortaleza ECBaseline
Rest days3 days3 days—
Matches last 14 days2 matches2 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Vila Nova's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Vila Nova's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1 goal/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.42 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1 goal/match1.42 goals/match1.13 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Vila Nova FC favored in 6 of 11 directional metrics · Fortaleza in 4 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Vila Nova FC19 matchesFortaleza19 matches
1.42 goals/match ▲Goals scored19/191.16 goals/match
1.16 goals/matchGoals allowed19/19▲ 1 goal/match
1.37 xG/match ▲Expected goals7/91.22 xG/match
14.6 shots/matchShots7/915.2 shots/match
4.43 shots/matchShots on target7/9▲ 5 shots/match
53.4% ●Possession7/951.1%
4.29 corners/matchCorners7/9● 5.89 corners/match
13.4 fouls/matchFouls7/916.7 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade C · Limited evidenceLimited evidence — limited
Season samples19 / 19home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Paired coverage is below the configured metric threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The completed-match sample is too small for broad style conclusions.
Analysis cutoff: Tue, 21 Jul 2026, 23:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie B

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsVila Nova FCFortaleza
CompetitionSerie B
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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