PitchMath
Serie B · 2026Estadio Primeiro de Maio

São Bernardo 1–1 Avaí · Serie B

1–1Full-time analysis

Avaí

LWLLW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

São Bernardo and Avaí drew 1–1.

30-second read

What the record shows

The story here is recent context rather than season averages: são Bernardo's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. Limitation: Paired coverage is below the configured metric threshold.

São Bernardo's recent record differs from the season

moderate

São Bernardo's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.8 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.33 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.8 goals/match1.33 goals/match1.14 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: São Bernardo favored in 7 of 11 directional metrics · Avaí in 3 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

São Bernardo18 matchesAvaí18 matches
1.33 goals/match ▲Goals scored18/181.06 goals/match
0.94 goals/match ▲Goals allowed18/181.39 goals/match
1 xG/match ▲Expected goals7/80.68 xG/match
12.3 shots/match ▲Shots7/810.6 shots/match
4.57 shots/match ▲Shots on target7/83.63 shots/match
49.3%Possession7/8● 52.1%
3.71 corners/match ●Corners7/82.5 corners/match
11 fouls/matchFouls7/814.1 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade C · Limited evidenceLimited evidence — limited
Season samples18 / 18home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Paired coverage is below the configured metric threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The completed-match sample is too small for broad style conclusions.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 18 Jul 2026, 23:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie B

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsSão BernardoAvaí
CompetitionSerie B
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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