PitchMath
Serie B · 2026Estadio Primeiro de Maio

São Bernardo 1–1 Novorizontino · Serie B

1–1Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

São Bernardo and Novorizontino drew 1–1.

30-second read

What the record shows

The retained record does not give either club a clear edge on the metrics that clear the gates. The closest thing to a difference: são Bernardo's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. Limitation: Paired coverage is below the configured metric threshold.

São Bernardo's recent record differs from the season

weak

São Bernardo's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.8 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.55 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.8 goals/match1.55 goals/match1.1 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: São Bernardo favored in 3 of 11 directional metrics · Novorizontino in 0 · 8 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

São Bernardo11 matchesNovorizontino11 matches
1.55 goals/match ▲Goals scored11/111.27 goals/match
0.73 goals/match ▲Goals allowed11/111 goal/match
0.98 xG/matchExpected goals4/4▲ 1.51 xG/match
12.5 shots/matchShots4/4▲ 15.8 shots/match
4 shots/matchShots on target4/4▲ 5.25 shots/match
48.5%Possession4/4● 49.5%
4.75 corners/matchCorners4/4● 6.5 corners/match
8.5 fouls/matchFouls4/414.3 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade C · Limited evidenceLimited evidence — limited
Season samples11 / 11home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Paired coverage is below the configured metric threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The completed-match sample is too small for broad style conclusions.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 30 May 2026, 23:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie B

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsSão BernardoNovorizontino
CompetitionSerie B
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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