PitchMath
Primera A · 2026Estadio Romelio Martinez

Junior Barranquilla 4–3 Deportivo Pasto · Primera A

4–3Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Junior Barranquilla won 4–3.

Shots
810
Shots on target
65
Expected goals
1.061.75
Possession
46%54%

Full time

What the match recorded

Junior beat Deportivo Pasto 4–3. Recorded in this match (Junior – Deportivo Pasto): shots 8–10, shots on target 6–5, expected goals 1.06–1.75, possession 46%–54%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Junior's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Junior's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.63 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2.2 goals/match1.63 goals/match1.34 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots8 shots10 shotsJunior Barranquilla 8 shots, Deportivo Pasto 10 shots
  • Shots on target6 shots5 shotsJunior Barranquilla 6 shots, Deportivo Pasto 5 shots
  • Expected goals1.06 xG1.75 xGJunior Barranquilla 1.06 xG, Deportivo Pasto 1.75 xG
  • Possession46%54%Junior Barranquilla 46%, Deportivo Pasto 54%
  • Corners5 corners2 cornersJunior Barranquilla 5 corners, Deportivo Pasto 2 corners
  • Fouls14 fouls11 foulsJunior Barranquilla 14 fouls, Deportivo Pasto 11 fouls
  • Yellow cards2 cards3 cardsJunior Barranquilla 2 cards, Deportivo Pasto 3 cards
  • Passes278 passes334 passesJunior Barranquilla 278 passes, Deportivo Pasto 334 passes
  • Pass accuracy77%77%Junior Barranquilla 77%, Deportivo Pasto 77%
  • Shots inside box7 shots8 shotsJunior Barranquilla 7 shots, Deportivo Pasto 8 shots
  • Blocked shots2 blocks3 blocksJunior Barranquilla 2 blocks, Deportivo Pasto 3 blocks
  • Goalkeeper saves2 saves3 savesJunior Barranquilla 2 saves, Deportivo Pasto 3 saves
  • Offsides3 offsides0 offsidesJunior Barranquilla 3 offsides, Deportivo Pasto 0 offsides

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Junior Barranquilla favored in 3 of 13 directional metrics · Deportivo Pasto in 5 · 5 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Junior Barranquilla19 matchesDeportivo Pasto19 matches
1.63 goals/match ▲Goals scored19/191.53 goals/match
1.26 goals/matchGoals allowed19/191.32 goals/match
1.2 xG/matchExpected goals17/14▲ 1.26 xG/match
12.4 shots/matchShots18/1912.4 shots/match
4.61 shots/match ▲Shots on target18/194 shots/match
53.5% ●Possession18/1951.6%
5.06 corners/match ●Corners18/193.68 corners/match
2.5 cards/matchCards4/94.56 cards/match
12.7 fouls/matchFouls18/1911.7 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — ready
Season samples19 / 19home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Mon, 4 May 2026, 02:45 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Primera A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsJunior BarranquillaDeportivo Pasto
CompetitionPrimera A
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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