PitchMath
Primera A · 2026Estadio Departamental Libertad

Deportivo Pasto 1–0 Deportes Tolima · Primera A

1–0Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Deportivo Pasto won 1–0.

Shots
29
Shots on target
12
Expected goals
0.20.69
Possession
54%46%

Full time

What the match recorded

Deportivo Pasto beat Deportes Tolima 1–0. Recorded in this match (Deportivo Pasto – Deportes Tolima): shots 2–9, shots on target 1–2, expected goals 0.2–0.69, possession 54%–46%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Deportes Tolima's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Deportes Tolima's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.5 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2 goals/match1.5 goals/match1.2 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Deportes Tolima have a visible away split

moderate

Deportes Tolima's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

10 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season13.2 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots10 shots/match13.2 shots/match12.7 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Deportes Tolima.

9.16 days ▲Rest daysDeportivo Pasto · Deportes Tolima6.02 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricDeportivo PastoDeportes TolimaBaseline
Rest days9.16 days6.02 days—
Matches last 14 days2 matches3 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots2 shots9 shotsDeportivo Pasto 2 shots, Deportes Tolima 9 shots
  • Shots on target1 shot2 shotsDeportivo Pasto 1 shot, Deportes Tolima 2 shots
  • Expected goals0.2 xG0.69 xGDeportivo Pasto 0.2 xG, Deportes Tolima 0.69 xG
  • Possession54%46%Deportivo Pasto 54%, Deportes Tolima 46%
  • Corners1 corner4 cornersDeportivo Pasto 1 corner, Deportes Tolima 4 corners
  • Fouls10 fouls17 foulsDeportivo Pasto 10 fouls, Deportes Tolima 17 fouls
  • Yellow cards1 card2 cardsDeportivo Pasto 1 card, Deportes Tolima 2 cards
  • Passes311 passes263 passesDeportivo Pasto 311 passes, Deportes Tolima 263 passes
  • Pass accuracy76%66%Deportivo Pasto 76%, Deportes Tolima 66%
  • Shots inside box2 shots2 shotsDeportivo Pasto 2 shots, Deportes Tolima 2 shots
  • Blocked shots1 block3 blocksDeportivo Pasto 1 block, Deportes Tolima 3 blocks
  • Goalkeeper saves1 save1 saveDeportivo Pasto 1 save, Deportes Tolima 1 save
  • Offsides10 offsides1 offsideDeportivo Pasto 10 offsides, Deportes Tolima 1 offside

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Deportivo Pasto favored in 4 of 13 directional metrics · Deportes Tolima in 7 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Deportivo Pasto16 matchesDeportes Tolima16 matches
1.38 goals/matchGoals scored16/16▲ 1.5 goals/match
1.06 goals/matchGoals allowed16/16▲ 0.88 goals/match
1.27 xG/matchExpected goals11/12▲ 1.55 xG/match
12.5 shots/matchShots16/16▲ 13.2 shots/match
3.81 shots/matchShots on target16/16▲ 4.5 shots/match
51.4%Possession16/16● 54.8%
3.75 corners/matchCorners16/16● 4.75 corners/match
4.56 cards/matchCards9/73.57 cards/match
11.7 fouls/matchFouls16/1611.1 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — ready
Season samples16 / 16home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 11 Apr 2026, 05:05 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Primera A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsDeportivo PastoDeportes Tolima
CompetitionPrimera A
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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