PitchMath
Primera División · 2026Estadio Ester Roa

Universidad de Concepción vs Universidad Católica · Primera División

vsPre-match analysis

Season

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Goals scored
0.752.17
Expected goals
1.351.68
Shots
12.313.1
Possession
48.6%54%

30-second read

What the record shows

The retained record does not give either club a clear edge on the metrics that clear the gates. The closest thing to a difference: U. Catolica's last-five shots average is below their season average. Limitation: At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

U. Catolica's recent record differs from the season

weak

U. Catolica's last-five shots average is below their season average.

10.4 shots/match ▲ShotsLast 5 · Season13.1 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots10.4 shots/match13.1 shots/match13.1 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Universidad de Concepción favored in 0 of 13 directional metrics · Universidad Católica in 9 · 4 too close

recorded edge higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Universidad de Concepción24 matchesUniversidad Católica23 matches
0.75 goals/matchGoals scored24/23▲ 2.17 goals/match
1.67 goals/matchGoals allowed24/23▲ 1.43 goals/match
1.35 xG/matchExpected goals6/4▲ 1.68 xG/match
12.3 shots/matchShots24/23▲ 13.1 shots/match
3.92 shots/matchShots on target24/23▲ 4.61 shots/match
48.6%Possession24/23● 54%
4.96 corners/matchCorners24/23● 5.04 corners/match
4.17 cards/matchCards6/104.3 cards/match
11 fouls/matchFouls24/2311.3 fouls/match

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0Universidad de Concepción
0Draws
1Universidad Católica
Universidad Católica — Universidad de Concepción · Primera División5–1

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples24 / 23home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
Freshness85 daysstale at cutoff
  • At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The nearest completed-match evidence is stale relative to this fixture cutoff.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 6 Dec 2026, 21:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Primera División

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsUniversidad de ConcepciónUniversidad Católica
CompetitionPrimera División
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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