PitchMath
Primera División · 2026Estadio Municipal Nelson Oyarzun Arenas

Ñublense 1–0 Audax Italiano · Primera División

1–0Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Ñublense won 1–0.

Shots
1011
Shots on target
26
Expected goals
0.780.49
Possession
41%59%

Full time

What the match recorded

Nublense beat A. Italiano 1–0. Recorded in this match (Nublense – A. Italiano): shots 10–11, shots on target 2–6, expected goals 0.78–0.49, possession 41%–59%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

A. Italiano show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

A. Italiano's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

14 shots/match ▲ShotsNublense · A. Italiano9.67 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricNublenseA. ItalianoBaseline
Shots14 shots/match9.67 shots/match12 shots/match
Shots against9 shots/match10 shots/match10.3 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots10 shots11 shotsÑublense 10 shots, Audax Italiano 11 shots
  • Shots on target2 shots6 shotsÑublense 2 shots, Audax Italiano 6 shots
  • Expected goals0.78 xG0.49 xGÑublense 0.78 xG, Audax Italiano 0.49 xG
  • Possession41%59%Ñublense 41%, Audax Italiano 59%
  • Corners4 corners6 cornersÑublense 4 corners, Audax Italiano 6 corners
  • Fouls23 fouls11 foulsÑublense 23 fouls, Audax Italiano 11 fouls
  • Yellow cards3 cards2 cardsÑublense 3 cards, Audax Italiano 2 cards
  • Passes318 passes482 passesÑublense 318 passes, Audax Italiano 482 passes
  • Pass accuracy76%83%Ñublense 76%, Audax Italiano 83%
  • Shots inside box5 shots5 shotsÑublense 5 shots, Audax Italiano 5 shots
  • Blocked shots2 blocks3 blocksÑublense 2 blocks, Audax Italiano 3 blocks
  • Goalkeeper saves6 saves1 saveÑublense 6 saves, Audax Italiano 1 save
  • Offsides0 offsides1 offsideÑublense 0 offsides, Audax Italiano 1 offside

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Ñublense
0Draws
4Audax Italiano
Audax Italiano — Ñublense · Primera División1–0
Ñublense — Audax Italiano · Primera División2–3
Audax Italiano — Ñublense · Primera División0–1
Ñublense — Audax Italiano · Primera División1–2
Audax Italiano — Ñublense · Primera División1–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Ñublense favored in 0 of 11 directional metrics · Audax Italiano in 0 · 11 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Ñublense3 matchesAudax Italiano3 matches
1 goal/matchGoals scored3/31 goal/match
0.67 goals/matchGoals allowed3/3▲ 0.33 goals/match
14 shots/match ▲Shots3/39.67 shots/match
2.67 shots/matchShots on target3/3▲ 4.33 shots/match
49%Possession3/3● 55.7%
7.67 corners/match ●Corners3/34 corners/match
16 fouls/matchFouls3/310 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade C · Limited evidenceLimited evidence — limited
Season samples3 / 3home / away teams
Recent samples3 / 3last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • At least one team has fewer than the configured season sample.
  • At least one team has an incomplete last-five window.
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against, cards.
  • The completed-match sample is too small for broad style conclusions.
Analysis cutoff: Mon, 16 Feb 2026, 01:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Primera División

Goals per match rankingShots per match rankingShots on target per match ranking
TeamsÑublenseAudax Italiano
CompetitionPrimera División
Head-to-headÑublense — Audax Italiano
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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