PitchMath
Eliteserien · 2026

Tromsø IL 3–2 HamKam · Eliteserien

3–2Full-time analysis

HamKam

DLDLL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Tromsø IL won 3–2.

Shots
185
Shots on target
112
Expected goals
2.120.35
Possession
66%34%

Full time

What the match recorded

Tromsø IL beat HamKam 3–2. Recorded in this match (Tromsø IL – HamKam): shots 18–5, shots on target 11–2, expected goals 2.12–0.35, possession 66%–34%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

HamKam's recent record differs from the season

moderate

HamKam's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1 goal/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.38 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1 goal/match1.38 goals/match1.48 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

HamKam show a distinct attacking-volume record

strong

HamKam's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

13.5 shots/match ▲ShotsTromsø IL · HamKam9.86 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricTromsø ILHamKamBaseline
Shots13.5 shots/match9.86 shots/match13.8 shots/match
Shots against11 shots/match16.2 shots/match14.1 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Tromsø IL have a visible home split

moderate

Tromsø IL's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

15.6 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season13.5 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots15.6 shots/match13.5 shots/match13.8 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots18 shots5 shotsTromsø IL 18 shots, HamKam 5 shots
  • Shots on target11 shots2 shotsTromsø IL 11 shots, HamKam 2 shots
  • Expected goals2.12 xG0.35 xGTromsø IL 2.12 xG, HamKam 0.35 xG
  • Possession66%34%Tromsø IL 66%, HamKam 34%
  • Corners7 corners1 cornerTromsø IL 7 corners, HamKam 1 corner
  • Fouls8 fouls9 foulsTromsø IL 8 fouls, HamKam 9 fouls
  • Yellow cards0 cards1 cardTromsø IL 0 cards, HamKam 1 card
  • Passes712 passes353 passesTromsø IL 712 passes, HamKam 353 passes
  • Pass accuracy89.5%78.2%Tromsø IL 89.5%, HamKam 78.2%
  • Shots inside box15 shots4 shotsTromsø IL 15 shots, HamKam 4 shots
  • Blocked shots4 blocks1 blockTromsø IL 4 blocks, HamKam 1 block
  • Goalkeeper saves1 save8 savesTromsø IL 1 save, HamKam 8 saves
  • Offsides1 offside3 offsidesTromsø IL 1 offside, HamKam 3 offsides

As it happened

Key moments

  1. 41′Mohamed OfkirGoal · HamKam
  2. 44′Morten BjørloGoal · Tromsø IL
  3. Half-time
  4. 60′Heine Asen LarsenGoal · Tromsø IL
  5. 77′Snorre Strand NilsenYellow card · HamKam
  6. 85′Vegard ErlienGoal · Tromsø IL
  7. 87′Vetle SkjaervikGoal · Tromsø IL
  8. Full time
Player changes · 7grouped by team and minute
  • 46′HamKam · 1 player changeHenrik Udahl
  • 62′HamKam · 1 player changeHalvor Rodolen Opsahl
  • 63′HamKam · 1 player changeDanilo Al-Saed
  • 68′Tromsø IL · 1 player changeVegard Erlien
  • 77′HamKam · 1 player changeLoris Mettler
  • 83′Tromsø IL · 1 player changeJesper Andreas Grundt
  • 90′Tromsø IL · 1 player changeNikolay Jakobsen Hristov

Who started

Lineups

Show both lineups

Confirmed lineups as published before kick-off.

Tromsø IL
  1. Jakob HaugaardG
  2. Vetle SkjaervikD
  3. Leon HienD
  4. Alexander WarnerydD
  5. Isak VadebuD
  6. Sander InnværD
  7. Lars Olden LarsenM
  8. Ruben JenssenM
  9. Morten BjørloM
  10. Troy NyhammerF
  11. Heine Asen LarsenF
HamKam
  1. Marcus SandbergG
  2. Martin GjoneD
  3. Ethan Amundsen-DayD
  4. Aleksander AndresenD
  5. Snorre Strand NilsenD
  6. Fredrik SjolstadD
  7. Markus JohnsgardM
  8. Luc MaresM
  9. Patrick MetcalfeM
  10. Mohamed OfkirF
  11. David BenjaminF

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

3Tromsø IL
2Draws
0HamKam
HamKam — Tromsø IL · Eliteserien1–4
Tromsø IL — HamKam · Eliteserien1–0
HamKam — Tromsø IL · Eliteserien1–3
Tromsø IL — HamKam · Eliteserien3–3
HamKam — Tromsø IL · Eliteserien0–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Tromsø IL favored in 11 of 13 directional metrics · HamKam in 1 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Tromsø IL21 matchesHamKam21 matches
1.9 goals/match ▲Goals scored21/211.38 goals/match
1.38 goals/match ▲Goals allowed21/212.1 goals/match
1.61 xG/match ▲Expected goals21/211.09 xG/match
13.5 shots/match ▲Shots21/219.86 shots/match
5.71 shots/match ▲Shots on target21/213.71 shots/match
50.5% ●Possession21/2146.2%
5.38 corners/match ●Corners21/214.1 corners/match
12 fouls/matchFouls21/2112.5 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — ready
Season samples21 / 21home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 20 Sept 2026, 19:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Eliteserien

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsTromsø ILHamKam
CompetitionEliteserien
Head-to-headTromsø IL — HamKam
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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