Eliteserien · 2026Sun, 2 Aug 2026, 15:00 UTCScheduledAker StadionPre-match analysis

Molde

WLWDL

vsPre-match analysis

Sarpsborg 08 FF

LWWWD

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Sarpsborg 08 FF's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Molde have recorded the higher season possession share. Limitation: Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Sarpsborg 08 FF's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Sarpsborg 08 FF's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.4 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.08 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	1.4 goals/match	1.08 goals/match	1.42 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Molde have recorded the higher season possession share.

58%▲PossessionMolde · Sarpsborg 08 FF44.8%

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 13.2 percentage points.

Window: season

Metric	Molde	Sarpsborg 08 FF	Baseline
Possession	58%	44.8%	50.2%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Molde

0Draws

1Sarpsborg 08 FF

25 May 2026Sarpsborg 08 FF — Molde · Eliteserien2–1

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Molde favored in 4 of 14 directional metrics · Sarpsborg 08 FF in 1 · 9 too close

1.62 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 13/131.08 goals/match

1.31 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 13/13▲1.23 goals/match

1.48 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 13/131.34 xG/match

1.24 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 13/131.3 xG/match

12.2 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 13/1311.4 shots/match

12.2 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 13/1311.8 shots/match

4.23 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 13/134.08 shots/match

4.23 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 13/134.15 shots/match

58%Possessionseason · 13/1344.8%

4.92 corners/matchCornersseason · 13/135 corners/match

4.92 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 13/134.92 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 2/1—

11.2 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 13/1310.3 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

23%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 13/1323%

85%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 13/1369%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Molde90.6

Sarpsborg 08 FF25

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Molde61.5

Sarpsborg 08 FF31.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Molde60.4

Sarpsborg 08 FF74

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Molde3.1

Sarpsborg 08 FF46.9

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Molde34.4

Sarpsborg 08 FF9.4

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 54%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Molde40.6

Sarpsborg 08 FF46.9

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Molde46.9

Sarpsborg 08 FF30.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

1.4 goals/matchGoals scored5/51.4 goals/match

1.4 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1 goals/match

1.37 xG/match▲Expected goals5/51.2 xG/match

13 shots/match▲Shots5/512 shots/match

4.4 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲4.8 shots/match

58.6%Possession5/539.2%

5.8 corners/matchCorners5/53.6 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

8.4 fouls/matchFouls5/510.6 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches

1.8 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101 goals/match

1.2 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.3 goals/match

1.53 xG/match▲Expected goals10/101.26 xG/match

12.2 shots/match▲Shots10/1011 shots/match

4.3 shots/match▲Shots on target10/103.7 shots/match

56.4%Possession10/1044.5%

4.4 corners/matchCorners10/104.8 corners/match

—Cards1/1—

9.4 fouls/matchFouls10/1011.1 fouls/match

Window

Season

13 / 13 matches

1.62 goals/match▲Goals scored13/131.08 goals/match

1.31 goals/matchGoals allowed13/13▲1.23 goals/match

1.48 xG/match▲Expected goals13/131.34 xG/match

12.2 shots/match▲Shots13/1311.4 shots/match

4.23 shots/matchShots on target13/134.08 shots/match

58%Possession13/1344.8%

4.92 corners/matchCorners13/135 corners/match

—Cards2/1—

11.2 fouls/matchFouls13/1310.3 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

7 / 7 matches

2.14 goals/match▲Goals scored7/71 goals/match

0.86 goals/match▲Goals allowed7/71.57 goals/match

1.61 xG/match▲Expected goals7/71.26 xG/match

12.7 shots/match▲Shots7/710.7 shots/match

4.14 shots/matchShots on target7/74.29 shots/match

57.4%Possession7/746.1%

4.14 corners/matchCorners7/74 corners/match

—Cards1/1—

11.1 fouls/matchFouls7/710.1 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

15 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/115 days

0 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/10 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready

Season samples13 / 13home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

Freshness15 daysfrom nearest prior match

Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.

Analysis cutoff: Sun, 2 Aug 2026, 15:00 UTC · analysis-v4