Eliteserien · 2026Sat, 18 Jul 2026, 16:00 UTCFull timeAker StadionFull-time recap

Molde

LWLWD

1–2Full-time recap

Brann

WLLLW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Molde	Brann
Shots	15 shots/match▲	9 shots/match
Shots on target	2 shots/match	2 shots/match
Expected goals	1.36 xG/match▲	0.71 xG/match
Possession	47%	53%
Corners	6 corners/match	4 corners/match
Fouls	13 fouls/match	15 fouls/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Brann's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. No second pattern clears the sample and coverage gates. Limitation: Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Brann's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Brann's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.4 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	1.4 goals/match	2 goals/match	1.42 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Molde favored in 4 of 14 directional metrics · Brann in 4 · 6 too close

1.62 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 13/14▲2 goals/match

1.31 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 13/141.57 goals/match

1.48 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 13/14▲1.64 xG/match

1.24 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 13/141.55 xG/match

12.2 shots/matchShotsseason · 13/1412.8 shots/match

12.2 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 13/1414.1 shots/match

4.23 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 13/14▲4.57 shots/match

4.23 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 13/144.21 shots/match

58%Possessionseason · 13/1457.9%

4.92 corners/matchCornersseason · 13/146.29 corners/match

4.92 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 13/144.86 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 2/1—

11.2 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 13/1411.2 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

23%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 13/147%

85%Scoring frequencyseason · 13/14▲93%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Molde90.6

Brann84.4

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Molde56.2

Brann69.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Molde60.4

Brann42.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Molde3.1

Brann15.6

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Molde34.4

Brann40.6

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 54%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Molde40.6

Brann84.4

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Molde45.3

Brann62.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

1.4 goals/matchGoals scored5/51.4 goals/match

1.4 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.8 goals/match

1.37 xG/match▲Expected goals5/50.87 xG/match

13 shots/match▲Shots5/59.8 shots/match

4.4 shots/match▲Shots on target5/52.8 shots/match

58.6%Possession5/556.4%

5.8 corners/matchCorners5/55 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

8.4 fouls/matchFouls5/510.6 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches

1.8 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲2 goals/match

1.2 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.5 goals/match

1.53 xG/match▲Expected goals10/101.41 xG/match

12.2 shots/match▲Shots10/1011.2 shots/match

4.3 shots/matchShots on target10/104.2 shots/match

56.4%Possession10/1056.8%

4.4 corners/matchCorners10/105.4 corners/match

—Cards1/1—

9.4 fouls/matchFouls10/1011.6 fouls/match

Window

Season

13 / 14 matches

1.62 goals/matchGoals scored13/14▲2 goals/match

1.31 goals/match▲Goals allowed13/141.57 goals/match

1.48 xG/matchExpected goals13/14▲1.64 xG/match

12.2 shots/matchShots13/1412.8 shots/match

4.23 shots/matchShots on target13/14▲4.57 shots/match

58%Possession13/1457.9%

4.92 corners/matchCorners13/146.29 corners/match

—Cards2/1—

11.2 fouls/matchFouls13/1411.2 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

7 / 8 matches

2.14 goals/matchGoals scored7/8▲2.38 goals/match

0.86 goals/match▲Goals allowed7/81.75 goals/match

1.61 xG/matchExpected goals7/81.55 xG/match

12.7 shots/match▲Shots7/811.5 shots/match

4.14 shots/matchShots on target7/8▲4.63 shots/match

57.4%Possession7/852.1%

4.14 corners/matchCorners7/86.25 corners/match

—Cards1/0—

11.1 fouls/matchFouls7/813.3 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.08 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16.04 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready

Season samples13 / 14home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 18 Jul 2026, 20:00 UTC · analysis-v4