Eliteserien · 2026Sat, 11 Jul 2026, 12:00 UTCFull timeFredrikstad StadionFull-time recap

Fredrikstad

LLWDW

0–2Full-time recap

Lillestrom

WLWLL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Fredrikstad	Lillestrom
Shots	14 shots/match▲	10 shots/match
Shots on target	1 shots/match	4 shots/match▲
Expected goals	1.17 xG/match	1.24 xG/match▲
Possession	61%	39%
Corners	8 corners/match	3 corners/match
Fouls	7 fouls/match	10 fouls/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Lillestrom's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. No second pattern clears the sample and coverage gates. Limitation: Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Lillestrom's recent record differs from the season

weak

Lillestrom's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.58 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	1.2 goals/match	1.58 goals/match	1.32 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Fredrikstad favored in 1 of 14 directional metrics · Lillestrom in 8 · 5 too close

1.25 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 12/12▲1.58 goals/match

1.83 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 12/12▲0.92 goals/match

1.23 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 12/12▲1.43 xG/match

1.57 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 12/12▲1.15 xG/match

11.9 shots/matchShotsseason · 12/12▲12.6 shots/match

13.1 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 12/1212.7 shots/match

3.75 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 12/12▲4.42 shots/match

5.08 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 12/12▲4.17 shots/match

49.6%Possessionseason · 12/1252.2%

4.58 corners/matchCornersseason · 12/125.25 corners/match

4.75 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 12/124.92 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 1/1—

11.3 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 12/1210 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

0%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 12/12▲42%

75%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 12/1267%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Fredrikstad40.6

Lillestrom78.1

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Fredrikstad34.4

Lillestrom56.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Fredrikstad30.2

Lillestrom76.1

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Fredrikstad34.4

Lillestrom40.6

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Fredrikstad46.9

Lillestrom9.4

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 54%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Fredrikstad34.4

Lillestrom53.1

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Fredrikstad34.4

Lillestrom41.4

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

1.2 goals/matchGoals scored5/51.2 goals/match

1.4 goals/matchGoals allowed5/51.4 goals/match

1.22 xG/match▲Expected goals5/50.97 xG/match

12.4 shots/matchShots5/511.8 shots/match

3.6 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲4 shots/match

52.8%Possession5/553.6%

4.6 corners/matchCorners5/56 corners/match

—Cards1/1—

12.8 fouls/matchFouls5/510.8 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches

1.2 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1.5 goals/match

1.7 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1 goals/match

1.3 xG/matchExpected goals10/101.32 xG/match

12.3 shots/matchShots10/1011.8 shots/match

3.7 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲4.2 shots/match

50.3%Possession10/1052.7%

4.8 corners/matchCorners10/105.2 corners/match

—Cards1/1—

12.5 fouls/matchFouls10/109.7 fouls/match

Window

Season

12 / 12 matches

1.25 goals/matchGoals scored12/12▲1.58 goals/match

1.83 goals/matchGoals allowed12/12▲0.92 goals/match

1.23 xG/matchExpected goals12/12▲1.43 xG/match

11.9 shots/matchShots12/12▲12.6 shots/match

3.75 shots/matchShots on target12/12▲4.42 shots/match

49.6%Possession12/1252.2%

4.58 corners/matchCorners12/125.25 corners/match

—Cards1/1—

11.3 fouls/matchFouls12/1210 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

6 / 7 matches

1.5 goals/match▲Goals scored6/71.14 goals/match

1.33 goals/matchGoals allowed6/7▲0.71 goals/match

1.23 xG/matchExpected goals6/7▲1.42 xG/match

13.5 shots/matchShots6/713.6 shots/match

3.83 shots/matchShots on target6/7▲4.86 shots/match

49%Possession6/749.6%

5 corners/matchCorners6/75.43 corners/match

—Cards1/0—

10.5 fouls/matchFouls6/710.3 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

42.8 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/146.9 days

0 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/10 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready

Season samples12 / 12home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 11 Jul 2026, 16:00 UTC · analysis-v4