Eliteserien · 2026Sat, 30 May 2026, 14:00 UTCFull timeAker StadionFull-time recap

Molde

WWLWL

2–1Full-time recap

Sandefjord

LWWLD

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Molde	Sandefjord
Shots	9 shots/match	16 shots/match▲
Shots on target	3 shots/match	4 shots/match▲
Expected goals	1.12 xG/match▲	0.81 xG/match
Possession	51%	49%
Corners	5 corners/match	10 corners/match
Fouls	9 fouls/match	12 fouls/match
Yellow cards	1 cards/match▲	3 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Molde's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. No second pattern clears the sample and coverage gates. Limitation: Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Molde's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Molde's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.64 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	1 goals/match	1.64 goals/match	1.36 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Molde favored in 4 of 14 directional metrics · Sandefjord in 4 · 6 too close

1.64 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 11/110.91 goals/match

1.18 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 11/111.18 goals/match

1.45 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 11/111.21 xG/match

1.35 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 11/111.34 xG/match

11.3 shots/matchShotsseason · 11/11▲14.4 shots/match

12.7 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 11/1113.1 shots/match

4.09 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 11/11▲4.45 shots/match

4.45 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 11/11▲4.09 shots/match

59.4%Possessionseason · 11/1151.7%

4.64 corners/matchCornersseason · 11/116.27 corners/match

5.27 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 11/116.91 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 2/0—

11 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 11/1113 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

27%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 11/11▲36%

82%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 11/1173%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Molde90.6

Sandefjord71.9

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Molde45.8

Sandefjord45.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Molde64.6

Sandefjord66.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Molde3.1

Sandefjord71.9

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Molde34.4

Sandefjord96.9

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Molde40.6

Sandefjord78.1

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Molde35.1

Sandefjord75.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

1 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲1.2 goals/match

1 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.2 goals/match

1.05 xG/matchExpected goals5/5▲1.19 xG/match

8.8 shots/matchShots5/5▲13.4 shots/match

3.2 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲4.2 shots/match

57.6%Possession5/551.2%

4.2 corners/matchCorners5/56.6 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

7.6 fouls/matchFouls5/512 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches

1.6 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101 goals/match

1.3 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1.2 goals/match

1.47 xG/match▲Expected goals10/101.17 xG/match

11.1 shots/matchShots10/10▲14.1 shots/match

4.1 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲4.5 shots/match

59.1%Possession10/1051.1%

4.6 corners/matchCorners10/106.2 corners/match

—Cards2/0—

10.7 fouls/matchFouls10/1013.6 fouls/match

Window

Season

11 / 11 matches

1.64 goals/match▲Goals scored11/110.91 goals/match

1.18 goals/matchGoals allowed11/111.18 goals/match

1.45 xG/match▲Expected goals11/111.21 xG/match

11.3 shots/matchShots11/11▲14.4 shots/match

4.09 shots/matchShots on target11/11▲4.45 shots/match

59.4%Possession11/1151.7%

4.64 corners/matchCorners11/116.27 corners/match

—Cards2/0—

11 fouls/matchFouls11/1113 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

6 / 6 matches

2.33 goals/match▲Goals scored6/61 goals/match

0.67 goals/match▲Goals allowed6/61.67 goals/match

1.65 xG/match▲Expected goals6/61.17 xG/match

12.3 shots/matchShots6/6▲13.8 shots/match

4.5 shots/match▲Shots on target6/63.67 shots/match

59.2%Possession6/649%

3.83 corners/matchCorners6/65.5 corners/match

—Cards1/0—

10.8 fouls/matchFouls6/611.7 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

4.96 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/14.86 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready

Season samples11 / 11home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 30 May 2026, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4