PitchMath
Serie A · 2026Arena Fonte Nova

Bahia vs Atlético Mineiro · Serie A

Bahia

WWLLW
vsPre-match analysis

Season

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Goals scored
1.541.34
Expected goals
1.721.33
Shots
14.713.9
Possession
55%49.6%

30-second read

What the record shows

The story here is recent context rather than season averages: atletico-MG's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. Limitation: At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Atletico-MG's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Atletico-MG's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.8 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.34 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.8 goals/match1.34 goals/match1.33 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Bahia favored in 7 of 13 directional metrics · Atlético Mineiro in 3 · 3 too close

recorded edge higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Bahia28 matchesAtlético Mineiro29 matches
1.54 goals/match ▲Goals scored28/291.34 goals/match
1.25 goals/matchGoals allowed28/29▲ 1.17 goals/match
1.72 xG/match ▲Expected goals25/251.33 xG/match
14.7 shots/match ▲Shots28/2913.9 shots/match
5.07 shots/match ▲Shots on target28/294.79 shots/match
55% ●Possession28/2949.6%
5.68 corners/match ●Corners28/295.17 corners/match
4 cards/matchCards3/52.2 cards/match
14 fouls/matchFouls28/2911.6 fouls/match

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

2Bahia
2Draws
1Atlético Mineiro
Atlético Mineiro — Bahia · Serie A1–1
Atlético Mineiro — Bahia · Serie A3–0
Bahia — Atlético Mineiro · Serie A2–1
Bahia — Atlético Mineiro · Serie A3–0
Atlético Mineiro — Bahia · Serie A1–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples28 / 29home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
Freshness52 daysstale at cutoff
  • At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The nearest completed-match evidence is stale relative to this fixture cutoff.
Analysis cutoff: Wed, 2 Dec 2026, 21:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsBahiaAtlético Mineiro
CompetitionSerie A
Head-to-headBahia — Atlético Mineiro
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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