PitchMath
Serie A · 2026MRV Arena

Atlético Mineiro vs Vasco da Gama · Serie A

vsPre-match analysis

Season

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Goals scored
1.341.25
Expected goals
1.331.47
Shots
13.917.7
Possession
49.6%54%

30-second read

What the record shows

The story here is recent context rather than season averages: vasco DA Gama's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. Alongside it: vasco DA Gama's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Limitation: At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Vasco DA Gama's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Vasco DA Gama's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.8 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.25 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.8 goals/match1.25 goals/match1.33 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Vasco DA Gama show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Vasco DA Gama's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

13.9 shots/match ▲ShotsAtletico-MG · Vasco DA Gama17.7 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricAtletico-MGVasco DA GamaBaseline
Shots13.9 shots/match17.7 shots/match13.9 shots/match
Shots against15.1 shots/match11.7 shots/match13.8 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Atlético Mineiro favored in 3 of 13 directional metrics · Vasco da Gama in 6 · 4 too close

recorded edge higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Atlético Mineiro29 matchesVasco da Gama28 matches
1.34 goals/match ▲Goals scored29/281.25 goals/match
1.17 goals/match ▲Goals allowed29/281.46 goals/match
1.33 xG/matchExpected goals25/24▲ 1.47 xG/match
13.9 shots/matchShots29/28▲ 17.7 shots/match
4.79 shots/matchShots on target29/28▲ 5.5 shots/match
49.6%Possession29/28● 54%
5.17 corners/matchCorners29/28● 5.89 corners/match
2.2 cards/matchCards5/41.75 cards/match
11.6 fouls/matchFouls29/2813 fouls/match

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

3Atlético Mineiro
1Draws
1Vasco da Gama
Vasco da Gama — Atlético Mineiro · Serie A0–1
Atlético Mineiro — Vasco da Gama · Serie A5–0
Vasco da Gama — Atlético Mineiro · Serie A1–1
Vasco da Gama — Atlético Mineiro · Serie A2–0
Atlético Mineiro — Vasco da Gama · Serie A2–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples29 / 28home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
Freshness50 daysstale at cutoff
  • At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The nearest completed-match evidence is stale relative to this fixture cutoff.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 29 Nov 2026, 21:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsAtlético MineiroVasco da Gama
CompetitionSerie A
Head-to-headAtlético Mineiro — Vasco da Gama
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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