PitchMath
Serie A · 2026Estadio Olimpico Nilton Santos

Botafogo vs Bahia · Serie A

vsPre-match analysis

Bahia

WWLLW

Season

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Goals scored
1.451.54
Expected goals
1.291.72
Shots
14.414.7
Possession
47.6%55%

30-second read

What the record shows

The retained record does not give either club a clear edge on the metrics that clear the gates. The closest thing to a difference: botafogo's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. Limitation: At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Botafogo's recent record differs from the season

weak

Botafogo's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.45 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.2 goals/match1.45 goals/match1.33 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Botafogo favored in 0 of 13 directional metrics · Bahia in 7 · 6 too close

recorded edge higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Botafogo29 matchesBahia28 matches
1.45 goals/matchGoals scored29/28▲ 1.54 goals/match
1.66 goals/matchGoals allowed29/28▲ 1.25 goals/match
1.29 xG/matchExpected goals26/25▲ 1.72 xG/match
14.4 shots/matchShots29/2814.7 shots/match
5.1 shots/matchShots on target29/285.07 shots/match
47.6%Possession29/28● 55%
4.66 corners/matchCorners29/28● 5.68 corners/match
3.14 cards/matchCards7/34 cards/match
13.4 fouls/matchFouls29/2814 fouls/match

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Botafogo
1Draws
3Bahia
Bahia — Botafogo · Serie A2–1
Botafogo — Bahia · Serie A2–1
Bahia — Botafogo · Serie A1–0
Bahia — Botafogo · Serie A0–0
Botafogo — Bahia · Serie A1–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples29 / 28home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
Freshness49 daysstale at cutoff
  • At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The nearest completed-match evidence is stale relative to this fixture cutoff.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 29 Nov 2026, 21:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsBotafogoBahia
CompetitionSerie A
Head-to-headBotafogo — Bahia
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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