PitchMath
Serie A · 2026Ligga Arena

Athletico vs São Paulo · Serie A

vsPre-match analysis

Season

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Goals scored
1.681.17
Expected goals
1.391.27
Shots
13.114
Possession
46.9%53.9%

30-second read

What the record shows

The story here is recent context rather than season averages: atletico Paranaense's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. Alongside it: atletico Paranaense's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Atletico Paranaense's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Atletico Paranaense's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.4 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.68 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2.4 goals/match1.68 goals/match1.33 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Atletico Paranaense have a visible home split

moderate

Atletico Paranaense's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

15.3 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season13.1 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots15.3 shots/match13.1 shots/match13.9 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Athletico favored in 4 of 13 directional metrics · São Paulo in 7 · 2 too close

recorded edge higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Athletico28 matchesSão Paulo29 matches
1.68 goals/match ▲Goals scored28/291.17 goals/match
1.25 goals/matchGoals allowed28/29▲ 1.17 goals/match
1.39 xG/match ▲Expected goals24/251.27 xG/match
13.1 shots/matchShots28/29▲ 14 shots/match
5.39 shots/match ▲Shots on target28/294.31 shots/match
46.9%Possession28/29● 53.9%
5.14 corners/matchCorners28/29● 7.03 corners/match
1.83 cards/matchCards6/51.6 cards/match
13.7 fouls/matchFouls28/2914.4 fouls/match

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

2Athletico
0Draws
3São Paulo
São Paulo — Athletico · Serie A1–2
Athletico — São Paulo · Copa do Brasil1–0
São Paulo — Athletico · Copa do Brasil2–1
São Paulo — Athletico · Serie A2–1
Athletico — São Paulo · Serie A1–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples28 / 29home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
Freshness53 daysstale at cutoff
  • At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The nearest completed-match evidence is stale relative to this fixture cutoff.
Analysis cutoff: Wed, 2 Dec 2026, 21:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsAthleticoSão Paulo
CompetitionSerie A
Head-to-headAthletico — São Paulo
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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