PitchMath
Serie A · 2026

Mirassol vs Athletico · Serie A

vsPre-match analysis

Season

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Goals scored
1.111.68
Expected goals
1.081.39
Shots
13.613.1
Possession
49.9%46.9%

30-second read

What the record shows

The story here is recent context rather than season averages: atletico Paranaense's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. Alongside it: mirassol's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Atletico Paranaense's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Atletico Paranaense's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.4 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.68 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2.4 goals/match1.68 goals/match1.33 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Mirassol have a visible home split

moderate

Mirassol's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

16.1 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season13.6 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots16.1 shots/match13.6 shots/match13.9 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Mirassol favored in 1 of 13 directional metrics · Athletico in 10 · 2 too close

recorded edge higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Mirassol28 matchesAthletico28 matches
1.11 goals/matchGoals scored28/28▲ 1.68 goals/match
1.5 goals/matchGoals allowed28/28▲ 1.25 goals/match
1.08 xG/matchExpected goals25/24▲ 1.39 xG/match
13.6 shots/matchShots28/2813.1 shots/match
4.43 shots/matchShots on target28/28▲ 5.39 shots/match
49.9% ●Possession28/2846.9%
5.21 corners/match ●Corners28/285.14 corners/match
3 cards/matchCards5/61.83 cards/match
12.6 fouls/matchFouls28/2813.7 fouls/match

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0Mirassol
0Draws
1Athletico
Athletico — Mirassol · Serie A1–0

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples28 / 28home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
Freshness49 daysstale at cutoff
  • At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The nearest completed-match evidence is stale relative to this fixture cutoff.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 29 Nov 2026, 21:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsMirassolAthletico
CompetitionSerie A
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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