PitchMath
Serie A · 2026

Fluminense vs Cruzeiro · Serie A

vsPre-match analysis

Season

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Goals scored
1.681.61
Expected goals
1.291.51
Shots
14.714.9
Possession
58.8%55.4%

30-second read

What the record shows

The story here is recent context rather than season averages: cruzeiro's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. Alongside it: fluminense's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Cruzeiro's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Cruzeiro's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.61 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2.2 goals/match1.61 goals/match1.33 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Fluminense have a visible home split

moderate

Fluminense's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

17.1 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season14.7 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots17.1 shots/match14.7 shots/match13.9 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Fluminense favored in 3 of 13 directional metrics · Cruzeiro in 2 · 8 too close

recorded edge higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Fluminense28 matchesCruzeiro28 matches
1.68 goals/matchGoals scored28/281.61 goals/match
1.29 goals/match ▲Goals allowed28/281.54 goals/match
1.29 xG/matchExpected goals24/24▲ 1.51 xG/match
14.7 shots/matchShots28/2814.9 shots/match
5.64 shots/match ▲Shots on target28/285.32 shots/match
58.8% ●Possession28/2855.4%
5.36 corners/match ●Corners28/285.25 corners/match
3.4 cards/matchCards5/42.75 cards/match
13.6 fouls/matchFouls28/2814 fouls/match

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Fluminense
2Draws
2Cruzeiro
Cruzeiro — Fluminense · Serie A1–1
Cruzeiro — Fluminense · Serie A0–0
Fluminense — Cruzeiro · Serie A0–2
Fluminense — Cruzeiro · Serie A1–0
Cruzeiro — Fluminense · Serie A2–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples28 / 28home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
Freshness49 daysstale at cutoff
  • At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The nearest completed-match evidence is stale relative to this fixture cutoff.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 29 Nov 2026, 21:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsFluminenseCruzeiro
CompetitionSerie A
Head-to-headFluminense — Cruzeiro
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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