PitchMath
Serie A · 2026

Athletico vs Palmeiras · Serie A

vsPre-match analysis

Season

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Goals scored
1.561.68
Expected goals
1.361.04
Shots
12.614
Possession
46.4%50.9%

30-second read

What the record shows

The story here is recent context rather than season averages: athletico's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. Limitation: At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Athletico's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Athletico's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.56 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2.2 goals/match1.56 goals/match1.3 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Athletico favored in 2 of 13 directional metrics · Palmeiras in 8 · 3 too close

recorded edge higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Athletico25 matchesPalmeiras25 matches
1.56 goals/matchGoals scored25/25▲ 1.68 goals/match
1.24 goals/matchGoals allowed25/25▲ 0.76 goals/match
1.36 xG/match ▲Expected goals21/211.04 xG/match
12.6 shots/matchShots25/25▲ 14 shots/match
5.08 shots/match ▲Shots on target25/254.64 shots/match
46.4%Possession25/25● 50.9%
4.84 corners/matchCorners25/25● 5.96 corners/match
2.2 cards/matchCards5/72.57 cards/match
14 fouls/matchFouls25/2514.1 fouls/match

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Athletico
1Draws
3Palmeiras
Palmeiras — Athletico · Serie A1–0
Athletico — Palmeiras · Serie A0–2
Palmeiras — Athletico · Serie A0–2
Palmeiras — Athletico · Serie A1–0
Athletico — Palmeiras · Serie A2–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples25 / 25home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
Freshness37 daysstale at cutoff
  • At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The nearest completed-match evidence is stale relative to this fixture cutoff.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 18 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsAthleticoPalmeiras
CompetitionSerie A
Head-to-headAthletico — Palmeiras
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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