Serie A · 2026

Atlético Mineiro vs Coritiba · Serie A

vsPre-match analysis

Season

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Goals scored
1.321.48
Expected goals
1.320.97
Shots
13.311.4
Possession
49.3%40%

30-second read

What the record shows

The story here is recent context rather than season averages: coritiba's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. Alongside it: atlético Mineiro have recorded the higher season possession share. Limitation: At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Coritiba's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Coritiba's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.48 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2 goals/match1.48 goals/match1.3 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Atlético Mineiro show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Atlético Mineiro's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

13.3 shots/match ▲ShotsAtlético Mineiro · Coritiba11.4 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricAtlético MineiroCoritibaBaseline
Shots13.3 shots/match11.4 shots/match13.8 shots/match
Shots against14.7 shots/match17.2 shots/match13.4 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Atlético Mineiro have recorded the higher season possession share.

49.3% ●PossessionAtlético Mineiro · Coritiba40%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 9.3 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricAtlético MineiroCoritibaBaseline
Possession49.3%40%50.1%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Atlético Mineiro favored in 10 of 13 directional metrics · Coritiba in 2 · 1 too close

recorded edge higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Atlético Mineiro25 matchesCoritiba25 matches
1.32 goals/matchGoals scored25/25▲ 1.48 goals/match
1.2 goals/match ▲Goals allowed25/251.48 goals/match
1.32 xG/match ▲Expected goals21/210.97 xG/match
13.3 shots/match ▲Shots25/2511.4 shots/match
4.44 shots/match ▲Shots on target25/253.64 shots/match
49.3% ●Possession25/2540%
4.8 corners/match ●Corners25/253.8 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards4/52.8 cards/match
11.6 fouls/matchFouls25/2511.1 fouls/match

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

2Atlético Mineiro
1Draws
2Coritiba
Coritiba — Atlético Mineiro · Serie A2–0
Atlético Mineiro — Coritiba · Serie A1–2
Coritiba — Atlético Mineiro · Serie A1–2
Coritiba — Atlético Mineiro · Serie A0–1
Atlético Mineiro — Coritiba · Serie A2–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples25 / 25home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
Freshness37 daysstale at cutoff
  • At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The nearest completed-match evidence is stale relative to this fixture cutoff.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 18 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

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