PitchMath
Serie A · 2026

Chapecoense vs Athletico · Serie A

vsPre-match analysis

Season

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Goals scored
1.041.56
Expected goals
0.961.36
Shots
13.212.6
Possession
43%46.4%

30-second read

What the record shows

The story here is recent context rather than season averages: chapecoense's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. Limitation: At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Chapecoense's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Chapecoense's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.6 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.04 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.6 goals/match1.04 goals/match1.3 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Chapecoense favored in 0 of 13 directional metrics · Athletico in 11 · 2 too close

recorded edge higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Chapecoense25 matchesAthletico25 matches
1.04 goals/matchGoals scored25/25▲ 1.56 goals/match
2 goals/matchGoals allowed25/25▲ 1.24 goals/match
0.96 xG/matchExpected goals22/21▲ 1.36 xG/match
13.2 shots/matchShots25/2512.6 shots/match
3.52 shots/matchShots on target25/25▲ 5.08 shots/match
43%Possession25/25● 46.4%
4.04 corners/matchCorners25/25● 4.84 corners/match
1.33 cards/matchCards3/52.2 cards/match
13.4 fouls/matchFouls25/2514 fouls/match

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0Chapecoense
1Draws
2Athletico
Athletico — Chapecoense · Serie A2–0
Chapecoense — Athletico · Serie B2–3
Athletico — Chapecoense · Serie B1–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples25 / 25home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
Freshness31 daysstale at cutoff
  • At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The nearest completed-match evidence is stale relative to this fixture cutoff.
Analysis cutoff: Mon, 12 Oct 2026, 22:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsChapecoenseAthletico
CompetitionSerie A
Head-to-headChapecoense — Athletico
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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