PitchMath
Serie A · 2026

Chapecoense 1–4 Athletico · Serie A

1–4Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Athletico won 1–4.

Shots
2111
Shots on target
78
Expected goals
1.721.37
Possession
47%53%

Full time

What the match recorded

Athletico beat Chapecoense 4–1. Recorded in this match (Chapecoense – Athletico): shots 21–11, shots on target 7–8, expected goals 1.72–1.37, possession 47%–53%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Athletico's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Athletico's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.4 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.68 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2.4 goals/match1.68 goals/match1.3 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Athletico.

4.98 days ▲Rest daysChapecoense · Athletico3.98 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricChapecoenseAthleticoBaseline
Rest days4.98 days3.98 days—
Matches last 14 days1 match1 match—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Chapecoense have a visible home split

moderate

Chapecoense's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

15.4 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season13.2 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots15.4 shots/match13.2 shots/match13.9 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots21 shots11 shotsChapecoense 21 shots, Athletico 11 shots
  • Shots on target7 shots8 shotsChapecoense 7 shots, Athletico 8 shots
  • Expected goals1.72 xG1.37 xGChapecoense 1.72 xG, Athletico 1.37 xG
  • Possession47%53%Chapecoense 47%, Athletico 53%
  • Corners6 corners7 cornersChapecoense 6 corners, Athletico 7 corners
  • Fouls17 fouls11 foulsChapecoense 17 fouls, Athletico 11 fouls
  • Yellow cards2 cards1 cardChapecoense 2 cards, Athletico 1 card
  • Passes372 passes437 passesChapecoense 372 passes, Athletico 437 passes
  • Pass accuracy87.4%87%Chapecoense 87.4%, Athletico 87%
  • Shots inside box14 shots8 shotsChapecoense 14 shots, Athletico 8 shots
  • Blocked shots2 blocks2 blocksChapecoense 2 blocks, Athletico 2 blocks
  • Goalkeeper saves4 saves6 savesChapecoense 4 saves, Athletico 6 saves
  • Offsides1 offside0 offsidesChapecoense 1 offside, Athletico 0 offsides

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0Chapecoense
1Draws
2Athletico
Athletico — Chapecoense · Serie A2–0
Chapecoense — Athletico · Serie B2–3
Athletico — Chapecoense · Serie B1–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Chapecoense favored in 0 of 13 directional metrics · Athletico in 11 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Chapecoense28 matchesAthletico28 matches
1 goal/matchGoals scored28/28▲ 1.68 goals/match
2.11 goals/matchGoals allowed28/28▲ 1.25 goals/match
0.98 xG/matchExpected goals25/24▲ 1.39 xG/match
13.2 shots/matchShots28/2813.1 shots/match
3.57 shots/matchShots on target28/28▲ 5.39 shots/match
43%Possession28/28● 46.9%
4.11 corners/matchCorners28/28● 5.14 corners/match
1.33 cards/matchCards3/61.83 cards/match
13.6 fouls/matchFouls28/2813.7 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — ready
Season samples28 / 28home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Tue, 13 Oct 2026, 02:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsChapecoenseAthletico
CompetitionSerie A
Head-to-headChapecoense — Athletico
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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