PitchMath
Serie A · 2026Estadio Evandro Almeida

Remo 1–0 São Paulo · Serie A

Remo

LWDWL
1–0Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Remo won 1–0.

Shots
99
Shots on target
24
Expected goals
0.791.09
Possession
39%61%

Full time

What the match recorded

remo beat Sao Paulo 1–0. Recorded in this match (remo – Sao Paulo): shots 9–9, shots on target 2–4, expected goals 0.79–1.09, possession 39%–61%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

remo's recent record differs from the season

moderate

remo's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.6 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.17 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.6 goals/match1.17 goals/match1.31 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Sao Paulo have recorded the higher season possession share.

42.6%Possessionremo · Sao Paulo● 53.3%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 10.8 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricremoSao PauloBaseline
Possession42.6%53.3%50%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots9 shots9 shotsRemo 9 shots, São Paulo 9 shots
  • Shots on target2 shots4 shotsRemo 2 shots, São Paulo 4 shots
  • Expected goals0.79 xG1.09 xGRemo 0.79 xG, São Paulo 1.09 xG
  • Possession39%61%Remo 39%, São Paulo 61%
  • Corners6 corners7 cornersRemo 6 corners, São Paulo 7 corners
  • Fouls7 fouls14 foulsRemo 7 fouls, São Paulo 14 fouls

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Remo favored in 0 of 13 directional metrics · São Paulo in 9 · 4 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Remo18 matchesSão Paulo18 matches
1.17 goals/matchGoals scored18/18▲ 1.28 goals/match
1.61 goals/matchGoals allowed18/18▲ 1.11 goals/match
0.91 xG/matchExpected goals14/14▲ 1.19 xG/match
12.2 shots/matchShots18/1811.9 shots/match
3.94 shots/matchShots on target18/184.11 shots/match
42.6%Possession18/18● 53.3%
4.5 corners/matchCorners18/18● 6.61 corners/match
3.25 cards/matchCards4/41.5 cards/match
11.7 fouls/matchFouls18/1814.9 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — ready
Season samples18 / 18home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Mon, 1 Jun 2026, 00:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsRemoSão Paulo
CompetitionSerie A
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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