PitchMath
Serie A · 2026Estadio Do MorumBIS

São Paulo 1–1 Botafogo · Serie A

1–1Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

São Paulo and Botafogo drew 1–1.

Shots
1414
Shots on target
46
Expected goals
1.630.77
Possession
54%46%

Full time

What the match recorded

Sao Paulo and Botafogo drew 1–1. Recorded in this match (Sao Paulo – Botafogo): shots 14–14, shots on target 4–6, expected goals 1.63–0.77, possession 54%–46%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Botafogo's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Botafogo's last-five shots average is above their season average.

15.4 shots/match ▲ShotsLast 5 · Season12.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots15.4 shots/match12.3 shots/match12.9 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots14 shots14 shotsSão Paulo 14 shots, Botafogo 14 shots
  • Shots on target4 shots6 shotsSão Paulo 4 shots, Botafogo 6 shots
  • Expected goals1.63 xG0.77 xGSão Paulo 1.63 xG, Botafogo 0.77 xG
  • Possession54%46%São Paulo 54%, Botafogo 46%
  • Corners4 corners3 cornersSão Paulo 4 corners, Botafogo 3 corners
  • Fouls20 fouls19 foulsSão Paulo 20 fouls, Botafogo 19 fouls

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1São Paulo
3Draws
1Botafogo
São Paulo — Botafogo · Serie A1–0
Botafogo — São Paulo · Serie A2–2
Botafogo — São Paulo · Serie A2–1
São Paulo — Botafogo · Serie A2–2
São Paulo — Botafogo · Serie A0–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: São Paulo favored in 6 of 13 directional metrics · Botafogo in 3 · 4 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

São Paulo17 matchesBotafogo16 matches
1.35 goals/matchGoals scored17/16▲ 1.88 goals/match
1.12 goals/match ▲Goals allowed17/161.81 goals/match
1.2 xG/matchExpected goals13/131.21 xG/match
12.1 shots/matchShots17/1612.3 shots/match
4.12 shots/matchShots on target17/16▲ 4.94 shots/match
52.9% ●Possession17/1648.1%
6.59 corners/match ●Corners17/163.69 corners/match
1.5 cards/matchCards4/32.33 cards/match
14.9 fouls/matchFouls17/1613.9 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — ready
Season samples17 / 16home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Mon, 25 May 2026, 00:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsSão PauloBotafogo
CompetitionSerie A
Head-to-headSão Paulo — Botafogo
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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