PitchMath
Serie A · 2026

Fluminense 2–1 São Paulo · Serie A

2–1Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Fluminense won 2–1.

Shots
1014
Shots on target
37
Expected goals
1.480.92
Possession
50%50%

Full time

What the match recorded

Fluminense beat Sao Paulo 2–1. Recorded in this match (Fluminense – Sao Paulo): shots 10–14, shots on target 3–7, expected goals 1.48–0.92, possession 50%–50%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots10 shots14 shotsFluminense 10 shots, São Paulo 14 shots
  • Shots on target3 shots7 shotsFluminense 3 shots, São Paulo 7 shots
  • Expected goals1.48 xG0.92 xGFluminense 1.48 xG, São Paulo 0.92 xG
  • Possession50%50%Fluminense 50%, São Paulo 50%
  • Corners3 corners5 cornersFluminense 3 corners, São Paulo 5 corners
  • Fouls13 fouls10 foulsFluminense 13 fouls, São Paulo 10 fouls

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

3Fluminense
0Draws
2São Paulo
Fluminense — São Paulo · Serie A6–0
São Paulo — Fluminense · Serie A3–1
Fluminense — São Paulo · Serie A2–0
São Paulo — Fluminense · Serie A2–1
Fluminense — São Paulo · Serie A1–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Fluminense favored in 6 of 13 directional metrics · São Paulo in 3 · 4 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Fluminense16 matchesSão Paulo16 matches
1.69 goals/match ▲Goals scored16/161.38 goals/match
1.31 goals/matchGoals allowed16/16▲ 1.13 goals/match
1.33 xG/match ▲Expected goals12/121.16 xG/match
15.3 shots/match ▲Shots16/1611.9 shots/match
6.06 shots/match ▲Shots on target16/164.13 shots/match
60.1% ●Possession16/1652.8%
5.63 corners/matchCorners16/16● 6.75 corners/match
3.5 cards/matchCards4/41.5 cards/match
13.8 fouls/matchFouls16/1614.6 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — ready
Season samples16 / 16home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Mon, 18 May 2026, 00:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsFluminenseSão Paulo
CompetitionSerie A
Head-to-headFluminense — São Paulo
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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