PitchMath
Serie A · 2026Estadio Olimpico Nilton Santos

Botafogo 3–1 Corinthians · Serie A

3–1Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Botafogo won 3–1.

Shots
1319
Shots on target
51
Expected goals
0.821.11
Possession
35%65%

Full time

What the match recorded

Botafogo beat Corinthians 3–1. Recorded in this match (Botafogo – Corinthians): shots 13–19, shots on target 5–1, expected goals 0.82–1.11, possession 35%–65%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Corinthians's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Corinthians's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.88 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.2 goals/match0.88 goals/match1.31 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots13 shots19 shotsBotafogo 13 shots, Corinthians 19 shots
  • Shots on target5 shots1 shotBotafogo 5 shots, Corinthians 1 shot
  • Expected goals0.82 xG1.11 xGBotafogo 0.82 xG, Corinthians 1.11 xG
  • Possession35%65%Botafogo 35%, Corinthians 65%
  • Corners3 corners2 cornersBotafogo 3 corners, Corinthians 2 corners
  • Fouls22 fouls8 foulsBotafogo 22 fouls, Corinthians 8 fouls

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

2Botafogo
2Draws
1Corinthians
Corinthians — Botafogo · Serie A2–2
Botafogo — Corinthians · Serie A1–1
Botafogo — Corinthians · Serie A2–1
Corinthians — Botafogo · Serie A0–1
Corinthians — Botafogo · Serie A1–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Botafogo favored in 5 of 13 directional metrics · Corinthians in 5 · 3 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Botafogo15 matchesCorinthians16 matches
1.93 goals/match ▲Goals scored15/160.88 goals/match
1.87 goals/matchGoals allowed15/16▲ 1.13 goals/match
1.25 xG/match ▲Expected goals12/120.75 xG/match
12.2 shots/match ▲Shots15/1611.2 shots/match
4.87 shots/match ▲Shots on target15/163 shots/match
48.2%Possession15/16● 53.9%
3.73 corners/matchCorners15/16● 4.63 corners/match
2.33 cards/matchCards3/43.5 cards/match
13.5 fouls/matchFouls15/1613.9 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — ready
Season samples15 / 16home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Mon, 18 May 2026, 00:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsBotafogoCorinthians
CompetitionSerie A
Head-to-headBotafogo — Corinthians
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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