PitchMath
Serie A · 2026Arena Fonte Nova

Bahia 2–1 Botafogo · Serie A

Bahia

DDLDL
2–1Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Bahia won 2–1.

Shots
2413
Shots on target
96
Expected goals
2.461
Possession
69%31%

Full time

What the match recorded

Bahia beat Botafogo 2–1. Recorded in this match (Bahia – Botafogo): shots 24–13, shots on target 9–6, expected goals 2.46–1, possession 69%–31%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Botafogo's recent record differs from the season

weak

Botafogo's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.4 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.82 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.4 goals/match1.82 goals/match1.31 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots24 shots13 shotsBahia 24 shots, Botafogo 13 shots
  • Shots on target9 shots6 shotsBahia 9 shots, Botafogo 6 shots
  • Expected goals2.46 xG1 xGBahia 2.46 xG, Botafogo 1 xG
  • Possession69%31%Bahia 69%, Botafogo 31%
  • Corners10 corners4 cornersBahia 10 corners, Botafogo 4 corners
  • Fouls14 fouls16 foulsBahia 14 fouls, Botafogo 16 fouls

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

2Bahia
1Draws
2Botafogo
Botafogo — Bahia · Serie A2–1
Bahia — Botafogo · Serie A1–0
Bahia — Botafogo · Serie A0–0
Botafogo — Bahia · Serie A1–2
Botafogo — Bahia · Serie A3–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Bahia favored in 8 of 13 directional metrics · Botafogo in 1 · 4 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Bahia17 matchesBotafogo17 matches
1.47 goals/matchGoals scored17/17▲ 1.82 goals/match
1.35 goals/match ▲Goals allowed17/171.82 goals/match
1.52 xG/match ▲Expected goals14/141.2 xG/match
14 shots/match ▲Shots17/1712.4 shots/match
5.35 shots/match ▲Shots on target17/175 shots/match
54.3% ●Possession17/1747.1%
5.82 corners/match ●Corners17/173.71 corners/match
4 cards/matchCards3/32.33 cards/match
14.6 fouls/matchFouls17/1714 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — ready
Season samples17 / 17home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Mon, 1 Jun 2026, 00:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsBahiaBotafogo
CompetitionSerie A
Head-to-headBahia — Botafogo
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

Make a graphic from this match

Creator Studio builds a branded post from this match's recorded data, with its evidence grade and source cutoff carried into the export.

Turn this match into a graphicReady-made from PitchMath data · No sign-up required