Coritiba
Serie A · 2026Coritiba 3–2 Bahia · Serie A
This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.
Match at a glance
Coritiba won 3–2.
- Shots
- 13–14
- Shots on target
- 7–1
- Expected goals
- 0.96–1.38
- Possession
- 44%–56%
Full time
What the match recorded
Coritiba beat Bahia 3–2. Recorded in this match (Coritiba – Bahia): shots 13–14, shots on target 7–1, expected goals 0.96–1.38, possession 44%–56%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.
Pre-match record
What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.
Coritiba's recent record differs from the season
moderateCoritiba's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.
Evidence and caveat
Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.
Window: last_5 versus season
| Metric | Last 5 | Season | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals for | 1.8 goals/match | 1.41 goals/match | 1.32 goals/match |
Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.
The teams have contrasting possession records
strongBahia have recorded the higher season possession share.
Evidence and caveat
Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 14.7 percentage points.
Window: season
| Metric | Coritiba | Bahia | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Possession | 38.7% | 53.4% | 50.2% |
Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.
Bahia show a distinct attacking-volume record
weakBahia's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.
Evidence and caveat
Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.
Window: season
| Metric | Coritiba | Bahia | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shots | 10.2 shots/match | 13.4 shots/match | 12.9 shots/match |
| Shots against | 16.5 shots/match | 14.3 shots/match | 13.2 shots/match |
Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.
This match
Match statistics
History
Head-to-head
Recent meetings between these teams.
Last 5 meetings
Metric comparison
Team comparison
Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.
Season: Coritiba favored in 3 of 13 directional metrics · Bahia in 7 · 3 too close
Window
Season
Window
Last 10
Window
Last 5
Window
Home–Away
Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.
Possession control
Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.
Attacking volume
Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.
Defensive resistance
Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.
Directness proxy
Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.
Physicality
Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.
Set-piece relevance
Corner volume relative to competition peers.
Tempo and pressure proxy
Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.
- Rest before fixture · Both teams: 8.12 days
- Matches in previous 14 days · Both teams: 1 match
Coritiba / Bahia
Evidence quality
How much supports this analysis
- Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.
Known unknowns
- Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
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