PitchMath
Major League Soccer · 2026

Minnesota United vs San Jose Earthquakes · Major League Soccer

vsPre-match analysis

Season

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Goals scored
1.481.81
Expected goals
1.651.62
Shots
13.513.6
Possession
46.1%49.1%

30-second read

What the record shows

The story here is recent context rather than season averages: minnesota United FC's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. Alongside it: san Jose Earthquakes's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. Limitation: At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Minnesota United FC's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Minnesota United FC's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.48 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2 goals/match1.48 goals/match1.53 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

San Jose Earthquakes have a visible away split

moderate

San Jose Earthquakes's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

10.6 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season13.6 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots10.6 shots/match13.6 shots/match12.9 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Minnesota United favored in 0 of 13 directional metrics · San Jose Earthquakes in 6 · 7 too close

recorded edge higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Minnesota United27 matchesSan Jose Earthquakes27 matches
1.48 goals/matchGoals scored27/27▲ 1.81 goals/match
1.81 goals/matchGoals allowed27/27▲ 1.44 goals/match
1.65 xG/matchExpected goals24/241.62 xG/match
13.5 shots/matchShots27/2713.6 shots/match
4.74 shots/matchShots on target27/27▲ 5.19 shots/match
46.1%Possession27/27● 49.1%
5.41 corners/matchCorners27/27● 6.41 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards6/82.88 cards/match
12.3 fouls/matchFouls27/2712.3 fouls/match

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

5Minnesota United
0Draws
0San Jose Earthquakes
San Jose Earthquakes — Minnesota United · Major League Soccer1–5
Minnesota United — San Jose Earthquakes · Major League Soccer4–1
San Jose Earthquakes — Minnesota United · Major League Soccer0–1
San Jose Earthquakes — Minnesota United · Major League Soccer1–2
Minnesota United — San Jose Earthquakes · Major League Soccer2–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples27 / 27home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
Freshness42 daysstale at cutoff
  • At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The nearest completed-match evidence is stale relative to this fixture cutoff.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 8 Nov 2026, 00:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Major League Soccer

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsMinnesota UnitedSan Jose Earthquakes
CompetitionMajor League Soccer
Head-to-headMinnesota United — San Jose Earthquakes
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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