PitchMath
Primeira Liga · 2025Estádio José Gomes

CF Estrela Amadora 4–0 Casa Pia · Primeira Liga

4–0Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

CF Estrela Amadora won 4–0.

Shots
238
Shots on target
82
Expected goals
4.40.65
Possession
53%47%

Full time

What the match recorded

Estrela beat Casa Pia 4–0. Recorded in this match (Estrela – Casa Pia): shots 23–8, shots on target 8–2, expected goals 4.4–0.65, possession 53%–47%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Estrela's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Estrela's last-five shots average is above their season average.

15 shots/match ▲ShotsLast 5 · Season11.4 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots15 shots/match11.4 shots/match12.1 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Estrela have a visible home split

moderate

Estrela's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

13.9 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season11.4 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots13.9 shots/match11.4 shots/match12.1 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Casa Pia show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Casa Pia's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

11.4 shots/match ▲ShotsEstrela · Casa Pia8.46 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricEstrelaCasa PiaBaseline
Shots11.4 shots/match8.46 shots/match12.1 shots/match
Shots against13.4 shots/match14.5 shots/match13.4 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots23 shots8 shotsCF Estrela Amadora 23 shots, Casa Pia 8 shots
  • Shots on target8 shots2 shotsCF Estrela Amadora 8 shots, Casa Pia 2 shots
  • Expected goals4.4 xG0.65 xGCF Estrela Amadora 4.4 xG, Casa Pia 0.65 xG
  • Possession53%47%CF Estrela Amadora 53%, Casa Pia 47%
  • Corners6 corners1 cornerCF Estrela Amadora 6 corners, Casa Pia 1 corner
  • Fouls18 fouls20 foulsCF Estrela Amadora 18 fouls, Casa Pia 20 fouls
  • Yellow cards3 cards2 cardsCF Estrela Amadora 3 cards, Casa Pia 2 cards

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Eddy Doué · Estrela · 35′ · 0.01 xG · on targetRodrigo Pinho · Estrela · 8′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedIanis Stoica · Estrela · 21′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedRodrigo Pinho · Estrela · 27′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedTiago Morais · Casa Pia · 54′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedIyad Mohamed · Casa Pia · 81′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedClaudio Mendes · Casa Pia · 88′ · 0.02 xG · on targetRodrigo Pinho · Estrela · 3′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedIanis Stoica · Estrela · 17′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedGaizka Larrazabal · Casa Pia · 23′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJosé Fonte · Casa Pia · 82′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJérémy Livolant · Casa Pia · 20′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedAbdu Conté · Casa Pia · 30′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedJovane Cabral · Estrela · 72′ · 0.04 xG · on targetAbraham Marcus · Estrela · 70′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedTom Moustier · Estrela · 86′ · 0.05 xG · on targetRodrigo Pinho · Estrela · 6′ · 0.06 xG · on targetAbraham Marcus · Estrela · 27′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedIanis Stoica · Estrela · 50′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedIanis Stoica · Estrela · 7′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedRodrigo Pinho · Estrela · 39′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedJovane Cabral · Estrela · 69′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedIanis Stoica · Estrela · 72′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedAbraham Marcus · Estrela · 27′ · 0.18 xG · off target or blockedRodrigo Pinho · Estrela · 45′ · 0.25 xG · goalEddy Doué · Estrela · 76′ · 0.30 xG · goalJérémy Livolant · Casa Pia · 62′ · 0.45 xG · on targetAbraham Marcus · Estrela · 37′ · 0.59 xG · goalIanis Stoica · Estrela · 51′ · 0.65 xG · off target or blockedKevin Höög Jansson · Estrela · 51′ · 0.66 xG · off target or blockedRodrigo Pinho · Estrela · 12′ · 0.82 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Estrela: 23 shots, 8 on target, 4.36 xG. Casa Pia: 8 shots, 2 on target, 0.65 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

02.254.50′HT90′Rodrigo Pinho · Estrela · 12′Abraham Marcus · Estrela · 37′Rodrigo Pinho · Estrela · 45′Eddy Doué · Estrela · 76′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Estrela 4.36 xG · Casa Pia 0.65 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

3CF Estrela Amadora
0Draws
2Casa Pia
Casa Pia — CF Estrela Amadora · Primeira Liga3–5
Casa Pia — CF Estrela Amadora · Primeira Liga1–0
CF Estrela Amadora — Casa Pia · Primeira Liga0–1
CF Estrela Amadora — Casa Pia · Primeira Liga3–1
Casa Pia — CF Estrela Amadora · Primeira Liga0–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: CF Estrela Amadora favored in 9 of 11 directional metrics · Casa Pia in 0 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

CF Estrela Amadora29 matchesCasa Pia28 matches
1.24 goals/match ▲Goals scored29/281.11 goals/match
1.55 goals/match ▲Goals allowed29/281.82 goals/match
1.26 xG/match ▲Expected goals27/260.92 xG/match
11.4 shots/match ▲Shots29/288.46 shots/match
3.93 shots/match ▲Shots on target29/282.89 shots/match
49.3% ●Possession29/2843%
3.69 corners/match ●Corners29/283.43 corners/match
2.68 cards/matchCards25/253.12 cards/match
14.5 fouls/matchFouls29/2815.9 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples29 / 28home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 21 Mar 2026, 00:15 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Primeira Liga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsCF Estrela AmadoraCasa Pia
CompetitionPrimeira LigaPrimeira Liga 2025/26
Head-to-headCF Estrela Amadora — Casa Pia
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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