PitchMath
Primeira Liga · 2025Estadio Municipal de Famalicao

Famalicão 1–0 CD Nacional · Primeira Liga

1–0Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Famalicão won 1–0.

Shots
149
Shots on target
46
Expected goals
1.740.43
Possession
54%46%

Full time

What the match recorded

Famalicao beat Nacional 1–0. Recorded in this match (Famalicao – Nacional): shots 14–9, shots on target 4–6, expected goals 1.74–0.43, possession 54%–46%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Nacional's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Nacional's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.4 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.11 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.4 goals/match1.11 goals/match1.18 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots14 shots9 shotsFamalicão 14 shots, CD Nacional 9 shots
  • Shots on target4 shots6 shotsFamalicão 4 shots, CD Nacional 6 shots
  • Expected goals1.74 xG0.43 xGFamalicão 1.74 xG, CD Nacional 0.43 xG
  • Possession54%46%Famalicão 54%, CD Nacional 46%
  • Corners7 corners6 cornersFamalicão 7 corners, CD Nacional 6 corners
  • Fouls13 fouls18 foulsFamalicão 13 fouls, CD Nacional 18 fouls
  • Yellow cards2 cards2 cardsFamalicão 2 cards, CD Nacional 2 cards

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Tom Van De Looi · Famalicao · 22′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedChiheb Labidi · Nacional · 35′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedGil Dias · Famalicao · 45′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedAlan Núñez · Nacional · 56′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedGil Dias · Famalicao · 60′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedChiheb Labidi · Nacional · 72′ · 0.01 xG · on targetZe Vitor · Nacional · 10′ · 0.02 xG · on targetSorriso · Famalicao · 13′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedTom Van De Looi · Famalicao · 31′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMathias De Amorim · Famalicao · 36′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedSimon Elisor · Famalicao · 38′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedDaniel Júnior · Nacional · 34′ · 0.03 xG · on targetPablo Messias Cardozo · Nacional · 90′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedChiheb Labidi · Nacional · 7′ · 0.05 xG · on targetSimon Elisor · Famalicao · 27′ · 0.06 xG · on targetGustavo Sá · Famalicao · 60′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedLucas João · Nacional · 86′ · 0.08 xG · on targetSimon Elisor · Famalicao · 1′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedPaulinho Bóia · Nacional · 55′ · 0.16 xG · on targetGustavo Sá · Famalicao · 45′ · 0.17 xG · on targetSimon Elisor · Famalicao · 57′ · 0.23 xG · off target or blockedSimon Elisor · Famalicao · 21′ · 0.32 xG · on targetIbrahima Ba · Famalicao · 63′ · 0.63 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Famalicao: 14 shots, 4 on target, 1.70 xG. Nacional: 9 shots, 6 on target, 0.41 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Ibrahima Ba · Famalicao · 63′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Famalicao 1.70 xG · Nacional 0.41 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Famalicão
1Draws
1CD Nacional
CD Nacional — Famalicão · Primeira Liga0–1
CD Nacional — Famalicão · Primeira Liga2–1
Famalicão — CD Nacional · Primeira Liga0–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Famalicão favored in 9 of 11 directional metrics · CD Nacional in 0 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Famalicão29 matchesCD Nacional28 matches
1.28 goals/match ▲Goals scored29/281.11 goals/match
0.79 goals/match ▲Goals allowed29/281.46 goals/match
1.32 xG/match ▲Expected goals27/271.2 xG/match
12.4 shots/matchShots29/2812.7 shots/match
4.17 shots/matchShots on target29/284.25 shots/match
52.2% ●Possession29/2846.1%
5.34 corners/match ●Corners29/284.21 corners/match
2.64 cards/matchCards25/253 cards/match
16.2 fouls/matchFouls29/2814.8 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples29 / 28home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 21 Mar 2026, 19:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Primeira Liga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsFamalicãoCD Nacional
CompetitionPrimeira LigaPrimeira Liga 2025/26
Head-to-headFamalicão — CD Nacional
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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