PitchMath
Primeira Liga · 2025Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior

Casa Pia 0–1 Sporting Braga · Primeira Liga

0–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Sporting Braga won 0–1.

Shots
78
Shots on target
12
Expected goals
0.480.47
Possession
31%69%

Full time

What the match recorded

SC Braga beat Casa Pia 1–0. Recorded in this match (Casa Pia – SC Braga): shots 7–8, shots on target 1–2, expected goals 0.48–0.47, possession 31%–69%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Casa Pia's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Casa Pia's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.4 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.03 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.4 goals/match1.03 goals/match1.16 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Casa Pia show a distinct attacking-volume record

strong

Casa Pia's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

8.66 shots/match ▲ShotsCasa Pia · SC Braga12.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricCasa PiaSC BragaBaseline
Shots8.66 shots/match12.3 shots/match11.8 shots/match
Shots against14 shots/match9 shots/match13.1 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for SC Braga.

5.04 days ▲Rest daysCasa Pia · SC Braga3.94 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricCasa PiaSC BragaBaseline
Rest days5.04 days3.94 days—
Matches last 14 days2 matches2 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots7 shots8 shotsCasa Pia 7 shots, Sporting Braga 8 shots
  • Shots on target1 shot2 shotsCasa Pia 1 shot, Sporting Braga 2 shots
  • Expected goals0.48 xG0.47 xGCasa Pia 0.48 xG, Sporting Braga 0.47 xG
  • Possession31%69%Casa Pia 31%, Sporting Braga 69%
  • Corners4 corners5 cornersCasa Pia 4 corners, Sporting Braga 5 corners
  • Fouls9 fouls9 foulsCasa Pia 9 fouls, Sporting Braga 9 fouls
  • Yellow cards2 cards3 cardsCasa Pia 2 cards, Sporting Braga 3 cards

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Iyad Mohamed · Casa Pia · 48′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedDavid Sousa · Casa Pia · 60′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedLawrence Ofori · Casa Pia · 66′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedDemir Ege Tıknaz · SC Braga · 25′ · 0.02 xG · on targetPau Víctor · SC Braga · 26′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedGabriel Martínez · SC Braga · 51′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedGabriel Martínez · SC Braga · 53′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedGaizka Larrazabal · Casa Pia · 70′ · 0.02 xG · on targetRicardo Horta · SC Braga · 12′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedVictor Gómez · SC Braga · 41′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedPedro Rosas · Casa Pia · 55′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedRicardo Horta · SC Braga · 68′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedPedro Rosas · Casa Pia · 75′ · 0.17 xG · off target or blockedClaudio Mendes · Casa Pia · 45′ · 0.22 xG · off target or blockedPau Víctor · SC Braga · 37′ · 0.30 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Casa Pia: 7 shots, 1 on target, 0.47 xG. SC Braga: 8 shots, 2 on target, 0.49 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.250.50′HT90′Pau Víctor · SC Braga · 37′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Casa Pia 0.47 xG · SC Braga 0.49 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

2Casa Pia
0Draws
3Sporting Braga
Sporting Braga — Casa Pia · Primeira Liga4–0
Casa Pia — Sporting Braga · Primeira Liga2–1
Sporting Braga — Casa Pia · Primeira Liga1–2
Sporting Braga — Casa Pia · Primeira Liga4–3
Casa Pia — Sporting Braga · Primeira Liga1–3

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Casa Pia favored in 0 of 11 directional metrics · Sporting Braga in 11

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Casa Pia32 matchesSporting Braga32 matches
1.03 goals/matchGoals scored32/32▲ 2 goals/match
1.75 goals/matchGoals allowed32/32▲ 0.97 goals/match
0.89 xG/matchExpected goals30/30▲ 1.81 xG/match
8.66 shots/matchShots32/32▲ 12.3 shots/match
2.88 shots/matchShots on target32/32▲ 5.06 shots/match
41.6%Possession32/32● 63.9%
3.69 corners/matchCorners32/32● 5.63 corners/match
3.12 cards/matchCards25/262.15 cards/match
15.9 fouls/matchFouls32/3211.4 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples32 / 32home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Thu, 23 Apr 2026, 22:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Primeira Liga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsCasa PiaSporting Braga
CompetitionPrimeira LigaPrimeira Liga 2025/26
Head-to-headCasa Pia — Sporting Braga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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