PitchMath
Primeira Liga · 2025Estádio Cidade de Barcelos

Gil Vicente 2–1 Casa Pia · Primeira Liga

2–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Gil Vicente won 2–1.

Shots
127
Shots on target
42
Expected goals
1.711.25
Possession
56%44%

Full time

What the match recorded

GIL Vicente beat Casa Pia 2–1. Recorded in this match (GIL Vicente – Casa Pia): shots 12–7, shots on target 4–2, expected goals 1.71–1.25, possession 56%–44%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Casa Pia's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Casa Pia's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.6 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.03 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.6 goals/match1.03 goals/match1.13 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Casa Pia show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Casa Pia's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

13.9 shots/match ▲ShotsGIL Vicente · Casa Pia8.61 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricGIL VicenteCasa PiaBaseline
Shots13.9 shots/match8.61 shots/match11.7 shots/match
Shots against10.3 shots/match14 shots/match13.2 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

GIL Vicente have recorded the higher season possession share.

50.6% ●PossessionGIL Vicente · Casa Pia41.6%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 9.0 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricGIL VicenteCasa PiaBaseline
Possession50.6%41.6%49.2%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots12 shots7 shotsGil Vicente 12 shots, Casa Pia 7 shots
  • Shots on target4 shots2 shotsGil Vicente 4 shots, Casa Pia 2 shots
  • Expected goals1.71 xG1.25 xGGil Vicente 1.71 xG, Casa Pia 1.25 xG
  • Possession56%44%Gil Vicente 56%, Casa Pia 44%
  • Corners4 corners3 cornersGil Vicente 4 corners, Casa Pia 3 corners
  • Fouls15 fouls18 foulsGil Vicente 15 fouls, Casa Pia 18 fouls
  • Yellow cards5 cards4 cardsGil Vicente 5 cards, Casa Pia 4 cards

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Murilo · GIL Vicente · 17′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedJonathan Mutombo · GIL Vicente · 62′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedRafael Brito · Casa Pia · 7′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedCassiano · Casa Pia · 49′ · 0.02 xG · on targetAgustín Moreira · GIL Vicente · 80′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedLuís Esteves · GIL Vicente · 45′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedZé Carlos · GIL Vicente · 54′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedGustavo Varela · GIL Vicente · 62′ · 0.05 xG · on targetJérémy Livolant · Casa Pia · 57′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedSanti García · GIL Vicente · 24′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedClaudio Mendes · Casa Pia · 90′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedDavid Sousa · Casa Pia · 38′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedMarvin Elimbi Gilbert · GIL Vicente · 67′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedGustavo Varela · GIL Vicente · 80′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedCassiano · Casa Pia · 7′ · 0.16 xG · off target or blockedMurilo · GIL Vicente · 31′ · 0.22 xG · goalAgustín Moreira · GIL Vicente · 83′ · 0.22 xG · on targetCassiano · Casa Pia · 45′ · 0.82 xG · goalMurilo · GIL Vicente · 73′ · 0.82 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

GIL Vicente: 12 shots, 4 on target, 1.75 xG. Casa Pia: 7 shots, 2 on target, 1.27 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Murilo · GIL Vicente · 31′Murilo · GIL Vicente · 73′Cassiano · Casa Pia · 45′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: GIL Vicente 1.75 xG · Casa Pia 1.27 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Gil Vicente
3Draws
1Casa Pia
Casa Pia — Gil Vicente · Primeira Liga1–1
Casa Pia — Gil Vicente · Primeira Liga1–0
Gil Vicente — Casa Pia · Primeira Liga1–1
Casa Pia — Gil Vicente · Primeira Liga0–0
Gil Vicente — Casa Pia · Primeira Liga2–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Gil Vicente favored in 11 of 11 directional metrics · Casa Pia in 0

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Gil Vicente33 matchesCasa Pia33 matches
1.52 goals/match ▲Goals scored33/331.03 goals/match
1 goal/match ▲Goals allowed33/331.76 goals/match
1.4 xG/match ▲Expected goals32/310.9 xG/match
13.9 shots/match ▲Shots33/338.61 shots/match
4.76 shots/match ▲Shots on target33/332.85 shots/match
50.6% ●Possession33/3341.6%
5.52 corners/match ●Corners33/333.67 corners/match
2.56 cards/matchCards25/253.12 cards/match
13.6 fouls/matchFouls33/3316 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples33 / 33home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Mon, 27 Apr 2026, 23:15 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Primeira Liga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsGil VicenteCasa Pia
CompetitionPrimeira LigaPrimeira Liga 2025/26
Head-to-headGil Vicente — Casa Pia
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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