PitchMath
Primeira Liga · 2025Estádio José Gomes

CF Estrela Amadora 1–2 FC Porto · Primeira Liga

1–2Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

FC Porto won 1–2.

Shots
1111
Shots on target
34
Expected goals
1.681.88
Possession
46%54%

Full time

What the match recorded

FC Porto beat Estrela 2–1. Recorded in this match (Estrela – FC Porto): shots 11–11, shots on target 3–4, expected goals 1.68–1.88, possession 46%–54%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Estrela's recent record differs from the season

weak

Estrela's last-five shots average is above their season average.

13.8 shots/match ▲ShotsLast 5 · Season11.4 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots13.8 shots/match11.4 shots/match11.7 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Estrela have a visible home split

moderate

Estrela's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

13.5 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season11.4 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots13.5 shots/match11.4 shots/match11.7 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Estrela show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Estrela's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

11.4 shots/match ▲ShotsEstrela · FC Porto14.4 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricEstrelaFC PortoBaseline
Shots11.4 shots/match14.4 shots/match11.7 shots/match
Shots against13.2 shots/match9.44 shots/match13.2 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots11 shots11 shotsCF Estrela Amadora 11 shots, FC Porto 11 shots
  • Shots on target3 shots4 shotsCF Estrela Amadora 3 shots, FC Porto 4 shots
  • Expected goals1.68 xG1.88 xGCF Estrela Amadora 1.68 xG, FC Porto 1.88 xG
  • Possession46%54%CF Estrela Amadora 46%, FC Porto 54%
  • Corners0 corners6 cornersCF Estrela Amadora 0 corners, FC Porto 6 corners
  • Fouls15 fouls15 foulsCF Estrela Amadora 15 fouls, FC Porto 15 fouls
  • Yellow cards3 cards3 cardsCF Estrela Amadora 3 cards, FC Porto 3 cards

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Gabri Veiga · FC Porto · 10′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedPepê · FC Porto · 52′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedIanis Stoica · Estrela · 12′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedOskar Pietuszewski · FC Porto · 32′ · 0.02 xG · on targetAbraham Marcus · Estrela · 35′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedKevin Höög Jansson · Estrela · 42′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedOskar Pietuszewski · FC Porto · 65′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedBruno Langa · Estrela · 90′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedOskar Pietuszewski · FC Porto · 6′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJakub Kiwior · FC Porto · 51′ · 0.04 xG · on targetAbraham Marcus · Estrela · 75′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedSydney van Hooijdonk · Estrela · 89′ · 0.06 xG · on targetIanis Stoica · Estrela · 62′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedVictor Froholdt · FC Porto · 44′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedRodrigo Mora · FC Porto · 72′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedJovane Cabral · Estrela · 79′ · 0.14 xG · goalJan Bednarek · FC Porto · 4′ · 0.16 xG · off target or blockedAbraham Marcus · Estrela · 75′ · 0.21 xG · on targetAbraham Marcus · Estrela · 58′ · 0.34 xG · off target or blockedDeniz Gül · FC Porto · 37′ · 0.55 xG · goalAbraham Marcus · Estrela · 63′ · 0.80 xG · off target or blockedDeniz Gül · FC Porto · 17′ · 0.82 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Estrela: 11 shots, 3 on target, 1.75 xG. FC Porto: 11 shots, 4 on target, 1.87 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Jovane Cabral · Estrela · 79′Deniz Gül · FC Porto · 17′Deniz Gül · FC Porto · 37′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Estrela 1.75 xG · FC Porto 1.87 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1CF Estrela Amadora
0Draws
4FC Porto
FC Porto — CF Estrela Amadora · Primeira Liga3–1
CF Estrela Amadora — FC Porto · Primeira Liga2–0
FC Porto — CF Estrela Amadora · Primeira Liga2–0
FC Porto — CF Estrela Amadora · Primeira Liga2–0
CF Estrela Amadora — FC Porto · Primeira Liga0–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: CF Estrela Amadora favored in 0 of 11 directional metrics · FC Porto in 11

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

CF Estrela Amadora33 matchesFC Porto32 matches
1.12 goals/matchGoals scored33/32▲ 2.03 goals/match
1.55 goals/matchGoals allowed33/32▲ 0.47 goals/match
1.22 xG/matchExpected goals31/31▲ 1.84 xG/match
11.4 shots/matchShots33/32▲ 14.4 shots/match
3.79 shots/matchShots on target33/32▲ 5.28 shots/match
48.8%Possession33/32● 55.2%
3.64 corners/matchCorners33/32● 5.59 corners/match
2.68 cards/matchCards25/252.36 cards/match
14.2 fouls/matchFouls33/3213.8 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples33 / 32home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 26 Apr 2026, 21:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Primeira Liga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsCF Estrela AmadoraFC Porto
CompetitionPrimeira LigaPrimeira Liga 2025/26
Head-to-headCF Estrela Amadora — FC Porto
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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