PitchMath
Primeira Liga · 2025Estádio Do Dragão

FC Porto 1–0 Estoril Praia · Primeira Liga

1–0Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

FC Porto won 1–0.

Shots
1211
Shots on target
62
Expected goals
1.411.11
Possession
49%51%

Full time

What the match recorded

FC Porto beat Estoril 1–0. Recorded in this match (FC Porto – Estoril): shots 12–11, shots on target 6–2, expected goals 1.41–1.11, possession 49%–51%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

FC Porto's recent record differs from the season

moderate

FC Porto's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2.08 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.2 goals/match2.08 goals/match1.31 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots12 shots11 shotsFC Porto 12 shots, Estoril Praia 11 shots
  • Shots on target6 shots2 shotsFC Porto 6 shots, Estoril Praia 2 shots
  • Expected goals1.41 xG1.11 xGFC Porto 1.41 xG, Estoril Praia 1.11 xG
  • Possession49%51%FC Porto 49%, Estoril Praia 51%
  • Corners5 corners4 cornersFC Porto 5 corners, Estoril Praia 4 corners
  • Fouls14 fouls11 foulsFC Porto 14 fouls, Estoril Praia 11 fouls
  • Yellow cards1 card3 cardsFC Porto 1 card, Estoril Praia 3 cards

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

André Lacximicant · Estoril · 11′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedJordan Holsgrove · Estoril · 45′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedJan Bednarek · FC Porto · 70′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedJoão Carvalho · Estoril · 22′ · 0.02 xG · on targetJoão Carvalho · Estoril · 32′ · 0.03 xG · on targetGabri Veiga · FC Porto · 63′ · 0.04 xG · on targetFerro · Estoril · 90′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedWilliam Gomes · FC Porto · 54′ · 0.06 xG · on targetBorja Sainz · FC Porto · 71′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedAndré Lacximicant · Estoril · 5′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedWilliam Gomes · FC Porto · 8′ · 0.07 xG · goalVictor Froholdt · FC Porto · 48′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedPedro Carvalho · Estoril · 57′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedSamu Aghehowa · FC Porto · 54′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedSamu Aghehowa · FC Porto · 55′ · 0.09 xG · on targetJakub Kiwior · FC Porto · 59′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedRicard Sánchez · Estoril · 22′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedBorja Sainz · FC Porto · 21′ · 0.15 xG · on targetJoão Carvalho · Estoril · 30′ · 0.15 xG · off target or blockedLuuk de Jong · FC Porto · 69′ · 0.16 xG · off target or blockedYanis Begraoui · Estoril · 45′ · 0.18 xG · off target or blockedYanis Begraoui · Estoril · 5′ · 0.35 xG · off target or blockedSamu Aghehowa · FC Porto · 68′ · 0.51 xG · on target
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

FC Porto: 12 shots, 6 on target, 1.42 xG. Estoril: 11 shots, 2 on target, 1.08 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.751.50′HT90′William Gomes · FC Porto · 8′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: FC Porto 1.42 xG · Estoril 1.08 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

3FC Porto
0Draws
2Estoril Praia
Estoril Praia — FC Porto · Primeira Liga1–2
FC Porto — Estoril Praia · Primeira Liga4–0
Estoril Praia — FC Porto · Primeira Liga1–0
FC Porto — Estoril Praia · Primeira Liga0–1
FC Porto — Estoril Praia · Primeira Liga3–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: FC Porto favored in 11 of 11 directional metrics · Estoril Praia in 0

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

FC Porto12 matchesEstoril Praia13 matches
2.08 goals/match ▲Goals scored12/131.69 goals/match
0.25 goals/match ▲Goals allowed12/131.46 goals/match
1.74 xG/match ▲Expected goals12/121.24 xG/match
14.7 shots/match ▲Shots12/1313.5 shots/match
5.75 shots/match ▲Shots on target12/134.15 shots/match
52.8% ●Possession12/1351.6%
5.5 corners/match ●Corners12/134.08 corners/match
2.75 cards/matchCards12/123.17 cards/match
13.9 fouls/matchFouls12/1312.6 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples12 / 13home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Mon, 1 Dec 2025, 00:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Primeira Liga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsFC PortoEstoril Praia
CompetitionPrimeira LigaPrimeira Liga 2025/26
Head-to-headFC Porto — Estoril Praia
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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