PitchMath
La Liga · 2025Sun, 24 May 2026, 19:00 UTCFull time

Villarreal

5–1Full-time recap

Atletico Madrid

This page now describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Villarreal's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Villarreal's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: Lineup availability and tactical choices are not in the retained data.

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples38 / 38home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Key factors

The clearest supported patterns

Strength combines sample and difference. It is not a probability.

Villarreal's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Villarreal's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricHomeAwayBaseline
Goals for2.6 goals/match1.89 goals/match1.22 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Villarreal have a visible home split

moderate

Villarreal's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHomeAwayBaseline
Shots14.5 shots/match12 shots/match12.1 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Atletico Madrid have recorded the higher season possession share.

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 8.8 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricHomeAwayBaseline
Possession44.5%53.3%49.4%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Villarreal17.5
Atletico Madrid77.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Villarreal67.5
Atletico Madrid80.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Villarreal64.2
Atletico Madrid80
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Villarreal72.5
Atletico Madrid42.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Villarreal45
Atletico Madrid30
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 86%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Villarreal32.5
Atletico Madrid92.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Villarreal45
Atletico Madrid68.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
MetricVillarrealAtletico Madrid
Goals scored2.6 goals/match5 obs.1.2 goals/match5 obs.
Goals allowed1.6 goals/match5 obs.1.4 goals/match5 obs.
Expected goals1.52 xG/match5 obs.1.71 xG/match5 obs.
Shots11.6 shots/match5 obs.14.4 shots/match5 obs.
Shots on target4.8 shots/match5 obs.4.2 shots/match5 obs.
Possession51%5 obs.48.8%5 obs.
Corners6.2 corners/match5 obs.7.8 corners/match5 obs.
Cards—0 obs.—1 obs.
Fouls10.2 fouls/match5 obs.10.8 fouls/match5 obs.

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
MetricVillarrealAtletico Madrid
Goals scored2.1 goals/match10 obs.1.5 goals/match10 obs.
Goals allowed1.3 goals/match10 obs.1.9 goals/match10 obs.
Expected goals1.59 xG/match10 obs.1.41 xG/match10 obs.
Shots12 shots/match10 obs.11.5 shots/match10 obs.
Shots on target4.7 shots/match10 obs.3.8 shots/match10 obs.
Possession46.4%10 obs.47.4%10 obs.
Corners4.9 corners/match10 obs.5.3 corners/match10 obs.
Cards—0 obs.5 cards/match4 obs.
Fouls10.2 fouls/match10 obs.11.6 fouls/match10 obs.

Window

Season

38 / 38 matches
MetricVillarrealAtletico Madrid
Goals scored1.89 goals/match38 obs.1.63 goals/match38 obs.
Goals allowed1.21 goals/match38 obs.1.16 goals/match38 obs.
Expected goals1.49 xG/match11 obs.1.42 xG/match11 obs.
Shots12 shots/match38 obs.13.1 shots/match38 obs.
Shots on target4.53 shots/match38 obs.5.05 shots/match38 obs.
Possession44.5%38 obs.53.3%38 obs.
Corners4.18 corners/match38 obs.6.47 corners/match38 obs.
Cards2.44 cards/match27 obs.2.28 cards/match32 obs.
Fouls11.9 fouls/match38 obs.11.1 fouls/match38 obs.

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

19 / 19 matches
MetricVillarrealAtletico Madrid
Goals scored2.53 goals/match19 obs.1.21 goals/match19 obs.
Goals allowed1 goals/match19 obs.1.42 goals/match19 obs.
Expected goals2.14 xG/match5 obs.1.22 xG/match6 obs.
Shots14.5 shots/match19 obs.10.7 shots/match19 obs.
Shots on target5.84 shots/match19 obs.3.84 shots/match19 obs.
Possession48.3%19 obs.51.7%19 obs.
Corners5.37 corners/match19 obs.5.16 corners/match19 obs.
Cards1.64 cards/match14 obs.2.44 cards/match16 obs.
Fouls11.7 fouls/match19 obs.12.3 fouls/match19 obs.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

MetricHomeAwayCompetitionSamples
Goals scoredseason1.89 goals/match88th1.63 goals/match83th1.22 goals/match38 / 38
Goals allowedseason1.21 goals/match28th1.16 goals/match20th1.45 goals/match38 / 38
Expected goalsseason1.49 xG/match83th1.42 xG/match73th1.25 xG/match11 / 11
Expected goals allowedseason1.1 xG/match18th1.69 xG/match98th1.23 xG/match11 / 11
Shotsseason12 shots/match48th13.1 shots/match73th12.1 shots/match38 / 38
Shots allowedseason12.8 shots/match63th11.6 shots/match28th12.5 shots/match38 / 38
Shots on targetseason4.53 shots/match68th5.05 shots/match88th4.12 shots/match38 / 38
Shots on target allowedseason3.87 shots/match18th3.71 shots/match13th4.22 shots/match38 / 38
Possessionseason44.5%18th53.3%78th49.4%38 / 38
Cornersseason4.18 corners/match33th6.47 corners/match93th4.58 corners/match38 / 38
Corners allowedseason4.89 corners/match63th4.29 corners/match13th4.79 corners/match38 / 38
Cardsseason2.44 cards/match58th2.28 cards/match38th2.43 cards/match27 / 32
Foulsseason11.9 fouls/match33th11.1 fouls/match23th12.4 fouls/match38 / 38
Clean-sheet frequencyseason21%40th37%90th24%38 / 38
Scoring frequencyseason84%65th87%78th76%38 / 38

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

MetricHomeAwayCompetitionSamples
Rest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures7.08 days—7.08 days——1 / 1
Matches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures2 matches—2 matches——1 / 1

What could change this?

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
TeamsVillarrealAtletico Madrid
CompetitionLa Liga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 24 May 2026, 23:00 UTC · analysis-v3