PitchMath
La Liga · 2025Sat, 23 May 2026, 19:00 UTCFull time

Valencia

3–1Full-time recap

Barcelona

This page now describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Valencia's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Barcelona's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Limitation: Lineup availability and tactical choices are not in the retained data.

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples38 / 38home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Key factors

The clearest supported patterns

Strength combines sample and difference. It is not a probability.

Valencia's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Valencia's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricHomeAwayBaseline
Goals for1.8 goals/match1.21 goals/match1.22 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Barcelona show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Barcelona's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricHomeAwayBaseline
Shots11.8 shots/match18.2 shots/match12 shots/match
Shots against11.7 shots/match9.13 shots/match12.5 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Barcelona have recorded the higher season possession share.

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 21.2 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricHomeAwayBaseline
Possession47.6%68.8%49.4%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Valencia37.5
Barcelona97.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Valencia31.7
Barcelona97.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Valencia60.8
Barcelona94.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Valencia42.5
Barcelona67.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Valencia23.8
Barcelona2.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 87%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Valencia65
Barcelona97.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Valencia36.9
Barcelona73.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
MetricValenciaBarcelona
Goals scored1.8 goals/match5 obs.1.6 goals/match5 obs.
Goals allowed1.4 goals/match5 obs.1.2 goals/match5 obs.
Expected goals1.16 xG/match5 obs.1.05 xG/match5 obs.
Shots12.4 shots/match5 obs.11.4 shots/match5 obs.
Shots on target3.6 shots/match5 obs.4.8 shots/match5 obs.
Possession44%5 obs.68.6%5 obs.
Corners4 corners/match5 obs.5.8 corners/match5 obs.
Cards—1 obs.—0 obs.
Fouls9.2 fouls/match5 obs.10.2 fouls/match5 obs.

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
MetricValenciaBarcelona
Goals scored1.6 goals/match10 obs.1.8 goals/match10 obs.
Goals allowed1.3 goals/match10 obs.0.8 goals/match10 obs.
Expected goals1.35 xG/match10 obs.1.47 xG/match10 obs.
Shots12.7 shots/match10 obs.13.7 shots/match10 obs.
Shots on target4 shots/match10 obs.5.3 shots/match10 obs.
Possession42.2%10 obs.68.4%10 obs.
Corners4.5 corners/match10 obs.5.9 corners/match10 obs.
Cards—1 obs.—1 obs.
Fouls11.6 fouls/match10 obs.10.5 fouls/match10 obs.

Window

Season

38 / 38 matches
MetricValenciaBarcelona
Goals scored1.21 goals/match38 obs.2.5 goals/match38 obs.
Goals allowed1.45 goals/match38 obs.0.95 goals/match38 obs.
Expected goals1.26 xG/match11 obs.1.64 xG/match11 obs.
Shots11.8 shots/match38 obs.18.2 shots/match38 obs.
Shots on target3.24 shots/match38 obs.6.76 shots/match38 obs.
Possession47.6%38 obs.68.8%38 obs.
Corners5.05 corners/match38 obs.6.89 corners/match38 obs.
Cards2.11 cards/match28 obs.1.71 cards/match28 obs.
Fouls12 fouls/match38 obs.9.47 fouls/match38 obs.

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

19 / 19 matches
MetricValenciaBarcelona
Goals scored1.42 goals/match19 obs.2 goals/match19 obs.
Goals allowed1.21 goals/match19 obs.1.37 goals/match19 obs.
Expected goals1.02 xG/match5 obs.1.44 xG/match5 obs.
Shots13.7 shots/match19 obs.18.1 shots/match19 obs.
Shots on target3.42 shots/match19 obs.6.11 shots/match19 obs.
Possession49.1%19 obs.69.9%19 obs.
Corners5.95 corners/match19 obs.6.68 corners/match19 obs.
Cards2 cards/match14 obs.2.33 cards/match15 obs.
Fouls12.4 fouls/match19 obs.9.21 fouls/match19 obs.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

MetricHomeAwayCompetitionSamples
Goals scoredseason1.21 goals/match45th2.5 goals/match98th1.22 goals/match38 / 38
Goals allowedseason1.45 goals/match53th0.95 goals/match8th1.45 goals/match38 / 38
Expected goalsseason1.26 xG/match53th1.64 xG/match93th1.25 xG/match11 / 11
Expected goals allowedseason1.11 xG/match28th1.05 xG/match13th1.23 xG/match11 / 11
Shotsseason11.8 shots/match38th18.2 shots/match98th12 shots/match38 / 38
Shots allowedseason11.7 shots/match33th9.13 shots/match3th12.5 shots/match38 / 38
Shots on targetseason3.24 shots/match13th6.76 shots/match98th4.12 shots/match38 / 38
Shots on target allowedseason4.13 shots/match33th3.47 shots/match8th4.22 shots/match38 / 38
Possessionseason47.6%38th68.8%98th49.4%38 / 38
Cornersseason5.05 corners/match65th6.89 corners/match98th4.58 corners/match38 / 38
Corners allowedseason4.76 corners/match48th4.42 corners/match18th4.77 corners/match38 / 38
Cardsseason2.11 cards/match15th1.71 cards/match3th2.43 cards/match28 / 28
Foulsseason12 fouls/match33th9.47 fouls/match3th12.4 fouls/match38 / 38
Clean-sheet frequencyseason24%50th39%98th24%38 / 38
Scoring frequencyseason76%53th97%98th76%38 / 38

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

MetricHomeAwayCompetitionSamples
Rest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures6.08 days—5.99 days——1 / 1
Matches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures3 matches—3 matches——1 / 1

What could change this?

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
TeamsValenciaBarcelona
CompetitionLa Liga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 23 May 2026, 23:00 UTC · analysis-v3