PitchMath
La Liga · 2025Sat, 23 May 2026, 19:00 UTCFull time

Real Madrid

4–2Full-time recap

Athletic Club

This page now describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline. A second useful context is: Athletic Club's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. Limitation: Lineup availability and tactical choices are not in the retained data.

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples38 / 38home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Key factors

The clearest supported patterns

Strength combines sample and difference. It is not a probability.

Both teams have elevated corners records

strong

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

MetricHomeAwayBaseline
Corners6.29 corners/match5.74 corners/match4.58 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

Athletic Club's recent record differs from the season

weak

Athletic Club's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricHomeAwayBaseline
Goals for1.4 goals/match1.13 goals/match1.22 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Real Madrid, Athletic Club.

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricHomeAwayBaseline
Rest days6.08 days6.08 days—
Matches last 14 days3 matches3 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Real Madrid92.5
Athletic Club47.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Real Madrid92.5
Athletic Club56.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Real Madrid92.5
Athletic Club54.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Real Madrid92.5
Athletic Club77.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Real Madrid11.2
Athletic Club70
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 87%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Real Madrid87.5
Athletic Club82.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Real Madrid70
Athletic Club76.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
MetricReal MadridAthletic Club
Goals scored1.8 goals/match5 obs.1.4 goals/match5 obs.
Goals allowed0.8 goals/match5 obs.2 goals/match5 obs.
Expected goals1.38 xG/match5 obs.1.23 xG/match5 obs.
Shots13.4 shots/match5 obs.13.8 shots/match5 obs.
Shots on target4.4 shots/match5 obs.4.6 shots/match5 obs.
Possession61.4%5 obs.45.2%5 obs.
Corners4.8 corners/match5 obs.6.8 corners/match5 obs.
Cards—0 obs.—0 obs.
Fouls10 fouls/match5 obs.14 fouls/match5 obs.

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
MetricReal MadridAthletic Club
Goals scored1.7 goals/match10 obs.1.3 goals/match10 obs.
Goals allowed1.1 goals/match10 obs.1.8 goals/match10 obs.
Expected goals1.55 xG/match10 obs.1 xG/match10 obs.
Shots15.7 shots/match10 obs.12 shots/match10 obs.
Shots on target6.3 shots/match10 obs.4.1 shots/match10 obs.
Possession59.5%10 obs.47.6%10 obs.
Corners5.7 corners/match10 obs.6.7 corners/match10 obs.
Cards—1 obs.—1 obs.
Fouls9.6 fouls/match10 obs.13 fouls/match10 obs.

Window

Season

38 / 38 matches
MetricReal MadridAthletic Club
Goals scored2.03 goals/match38 obs.1.13 goals/match38 obs.
Goals allowed0.92 goals/match38 obs.1.53 goals/match38 obs.
Expected goals1.51 xG/match11 obs.1.07 xG/match11 obs.
Shots17.5 shots/match38 obs.13.7 shots/match38 obs.
Shots on target6.66 shots/match38 obs.4.5 shots/match38 obs.
Possession59.4%38 obs.48.6%38 obs.
Corners6.29 corners/match38 obs.5.74 corners/match38 obs.
Cards2.11 cards/match28 obs.2.54 cards/match28 obs.
Fouls10 fouls/match38 obs.13.6 fouls/match38 obs.

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

19 / 19 matches
MetricReal MadridAthletic Club
Goals scored2.37 goals/match19 obs.1.11 goals/match19 obs.
Goals allowed0.84 goals/match19 obs.1.95 goals/match19 obs.
Expected goals1.78 xG/match6 obs.0.87 xG/match6 obs.
Shots19 shots/match19 obs.12.3 shots/match19 obs.
Shots on target7.68 shots/match19 obs.4 shots/match19 obs.
Possession60.9%19 obs.47.2%19 obs.
Corners6.47 corners/match19 obs.5.16 corners/match19 obs.
Cards2.71 cards/match14 obs.2.85 cards/match13 obs.
Fouls9.68 fouls/match19 obs.14 fouls/match19 obs.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

MetricHomeAwayCompetitionSamples
Goals scoredseason2.03 goals/match93th1.13 goals/match25th1.22 goals/match38 / 38
Goals allowedseason0.92 goals/match3th1.53 goals/match78th1.45 goals/match38 / 38
Expected goalsseason1.51 xG/match88th1.07 xG/match23th1.25 xG/match11 / 11
Expected goals allowedseason1.01 xG/match3th1.13 xG/match33th1.23 xG/match11 / 11
Shotsseason17.5 shots/match93th13.7 shots/match78th12 shots/match38 / 38
Shots allowedseason10.7 shots/match18th9.39 shots/match8th12.5 shots/match38 / 38
Shots on targetseason6.66 shots/match93th4.5 shots/match68th4.12 shots/match38 / 38
Shots on target allowedseason3.18 shots/match3th4.24 shots/match53th4.22 shots/match38 / 38
Possessionseason59.4%93th48.6%48th49.4%38 / 38
Cornersseason6.29 corners/match88th5.74 corners/match83th4.58 corners/match38 / 38
Corners allowedseason3.63 corners/match3th3.84 corners/match8th4.77 corners/match38 / 38
Cardsseason2.11 cards/match15th2.54 cards/match63th2.43 cards/match28 / 28
Foulsseason10 fouls/match8th13.6 fouls/match78th12.4 fouls/match38 / 38
Clean-sheet frequencyseason37%88th16%20th24%38 / 38
Scoring frequencyseason89%90th66%13th76%38 / 38

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

MetricHomeAwayCompetitionSamples
Rest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures6.08 days—6.08 days——1 / 1
Matches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures3 matches—3 matches——1 / 1

What could change this?

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
TeamsReal MadridAthletic Club
CompetitionLa Liga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 23 May 2026, 23:00 UTC · analysis-v3