PitchMath
La Liga · 2025Sat, 23 May 2026, 19:00 UTCFull time

Girona

1–1Full-time recap

Elche

This page now describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Girona's last-five shots average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Elche's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. Limitation: Lineup availability and tactical choices are not in the retained data.

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples38 / 38home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Key factors

The clearest supported patterns

Strength combines sample and difference. It is not a probability.

Girona's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Girona's last-five shots average is above their season average.

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricHomeAwayBaseline
Shots17.2 shots/match11.1 shots/match12 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Elche have a visible away split

moderate

Elche's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricHomeAwayBaseline
Shots8.21 shots/match10.8 shots/match12 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Girona.

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricHomeAwayBaseline
Rest days6.08 days6.08 days—
Matches last 14 days3 matches2 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Girona62.5
Elche87.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Girona29.2
Elche35
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Girona27.5
Elche25
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Girona17.5
Elche2.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Girona42.5
Elche45
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 86%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Girona27.5
Elche12.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Girona30
Elche28.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
MetricGironaElche
Goals scored0.6 goals/match5 obs.1 goals/match5 obs.
Goals allowed1 goals/match5 obs.1.4 goals/match5 obs.
Expected goals1.44 xG/match5 obs.0.82 xG/match5 obs.
Shots17.2 shots/match5 obs.10.6 shots/match5 obs.
Shots on target6.2 shots/match5 obs.3 shots/match5 obs.
Possession54%5 obs.58%5 obs.
Corners5.2 corners/match5 obs.3 corners/match5 obs.
Cards—0 obs.—2 obs.
Fouls11.6 fouls/match5 obs.16 fouls/match5 obs.

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
MetricGironaElche
Goals scored0.8 goals/match10 obs.1.3 goals/match10 obs.
Goals allowed1.2 goals/match10 obs.1.2 goals/match10 obs.
Expected goals1.09 xG/match10 obs.0.98 xG/match10 obs.
Shots12.4 shots/match10 obs.10.1 shots/match10 obs.
Shots on target4 shots/match10 obs.3.5 shots/match10 obs.
Possession53.5%10 obs.54.7%10 obs.
Corners4.2 corners/match10 obs.4 corners/match10 obs.
Cards—0 obs.3.25 cards/match4 obs.
Fouls10.5 fouls/match10 obs.14.1 fouls/match10 obs.

Window

Season

38 / 38 matches
MetricGironaElche
Goals scored1.03 goals/match38 obs.1.29 goals/match38 obs.
Goals allowed1.45 goals/match38 obs.1.5 goals/match38 obs.
Expected goals1.11 xG/match11 obs.0.94 xG/match11 obs.
Shots11.1 shots/match38 obs.10.8 shots/match38 obs.
Shots on target4.11 shots/match38 obs.3.82 shots/match38 obs.
Possession50.7%38 obs.57.7%38 obs.
Corners4.16 corners/match38 obs.3.76 corners/match38 obs.
Cards2.56 cards/match27 obs.2.26 cards/match31 obs.
Fouls10.7 fouls/match38 obs.13.3 fouls/match38 obs.

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

19 / 19 matches
MetricGironaElche
Goals scored1.11 goals/match19 obs.1 goals/match19 obs.
Goals allowed1.42 goals/match19 obs.2 goals/match19 obs.
Expected goals1.22 xG/match6 obs.0.6 xG/match6 obs.
Shots11.6 shots/match19 obs.8.21 shots/match19 obs.
Shots on target4.11 shots/match19 obs.2.89 shots/match19 obs.
Possession51.8%19 obs.55.1%19 obs.
Corners4.79 corners/match19 obs.2.74 corners/match19 obs.
Cards2.69 cards/match13 obs.2.53 cards/match15 obs.
Fouls10.4 fouls/match19 obs.13.4 fouls/match19 obs.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

MetricHomeAwayCompetitionSamples
Goals scoredseason1.03 goals/match13th1.29 goals/match63th1.22 goals/match38 / 38
Goals allowedseason1.45 goals/match53th1.5 goals/match70th1.45 goals/match38 / 38
Expected goalsseason1.11 xG/match28th0.94 xG/match18th1.25 xG/match11 / 11
Expected goals allowedseason1.23 xG/match50th1.18 xG/match43th1.23 xG/match11 / 11
Shotsseason11.1 shots/match28th10.8 shots/match18th12 shots/match38 / 38
Shots allowedseason14.5 shots/match88th13.8 shots/match73th12.5 shots/match38 / 38
Shots on targetseason4.11 shots/match48th3.82 shots/match25th4.12 shots/match38 / 38
Shots on target allowedseason4.71 shots/match78th4.84 shots/match83th4.22 shots/match38 / 38
Possessionseason50.7%63th57.7%88th49.4%38 / 38
Cornersseason4.16 corners/match28th3.76 corners/match13th4.58 corners/match38 / 38
Corners allowedseason5.16 corners/match78th4.47 corners/match23th4.77 corners/match38 / 38
Cardsseason2.56 cards/match68th2.26 cards/match33th2.43 cards/match27 / 31
Foulsseason10.7 fouls/match18th13.3 fouls/match58th12.4 fouls/match38 / 38
Clean-sheet frequencyseason16%20th21%38th24%38 / 38
Scoring frequencyseason74%38th87%80th76%38 / 38

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

MetricHomeAwayCompetitionSamples
Rest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures6.08 days—6.08 days——1 / 1
Matches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures3 matches—2 matches——1 / 1

What could change this?

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
TeamsGironaElche
CompetitionLa Liga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 23 May 2026, 23:00 UTC · analysis-v3