La Liga · 2025Sun, 5 Apr 2026, 14:15 UTCFull timeEstadio de MestallaFull-time recap

Valencia

LWWLW

2–3Full-time recap

Celta Vigo

WWLDL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Valencia	Celta Vigo
Shots	13 shots/match▲	9 shots/match
Shots on target	4 shots/match	5 shots/match▲
Expected goals	0.81 xG/match	1.04 xG/match▲
Possession	42%	58%
Corners	6 corners/match	0 corners/match
Fouls	13 fouls/match	20 fouls/match
Yellow cards	1 cards/match▲	3 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Valencia's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Valencia's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: Lineup availability and tactical choices are not in the retained data.

Valencia's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Valencia's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.13 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	1.6 goals/match	1.13 goals/match	1.2 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Valencia have a visible home split

moderate

Valencia's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

13.9 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season11.4 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

Metric	Home only	Season	Baseline
Shots	13.9 shots/match	11.4 shots/match	11.7 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Valencia

0Draws

1Celta Vigo

3 Jan 2026Celta Vigo — Valencia · La Liga4–1

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Valencia favored in 1 of 14 directional metrics · Celta Vigo in 5 · 8 too close

1.13 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 30/30▲1.47 goals/match

1.5 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 30/30▲1.23 goals/match

1 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 3/31.14 xG/match

0.76 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 3/31.34 xG/match

11.4 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 30/3010.8 shots/match

11.8 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 30/3012.1 shots/match

3.03 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 30/30▲4.17 shots/match

4.17 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 30/304.1 shots/match

49%Possessionseason · 30/3050.9%

5.2 corners/matchCornersseason · 30/304 corners/match

4.47 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 30/304.57 corners/match

2.15 cards/matchCardsseason · 27/27▲1.89 cards/match

12 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 30/3011.7 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

27%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 30/3027%

77%Scoring frequencyseason · 30/30▲87%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Valencia37.5

Celta Vigo65

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Valencia26.7

Celta Vigo49.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Valencia53.3

Celta Vigo61.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Valencia32.5

Celta Vigo12.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Valencia35

Celta Vigo20

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 95%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Valencia67.5

Celta Vigo32.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Valencia37.5

Celta Vigo35.6

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

1.6 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲2 goals/match

1.2 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/52 goals/match

1 xG/matchExpected goals3/3▲1.14 xG/match

13.6 shots/match▲Shots5/58.4 shots/match

3.8 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲4.4 shots/match

50%Possession5/548.4%

6.2 corners/matchCorners5/53 corners/match

—Cards2/2—

10.6 fouls/matchFouls5/512.2 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches

1.5 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1.6 goals/match

1.4 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.7 goals/match

1 xG/matchExpected goals3/3▲1.14 xG/match

11.3 shots/matchShots10/1011.6 shots/match

3.3 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲4.3 shots/match

49.4%Possession10/1053.9%

4.9 corners/matchCorners10/104.3 corners/match

2.29 cards/matchCards7/71.29 cards/match

11.5 fouls/matchFouls10/1011.9 fouls/match

Window

Season

30 / 30 matches

1.13 goals/matchGoals scored30/30▲1.47 goals/match

1.5 goals/matchGoals allowed30/30▲1.23 goals/match

1 xG/matchExpected goals3/3▲1.14 xG/match

11.4 shots/match▲Shots30/3010.8 shots/match

3.03 shots/matchShots on target30/30▲4.17 shots/match

49%Possession30/3050.9%

5.2 corners/matchCorners30/304 corners/match

2.15 cards/matchCards27/271.89 cards/match

12 fouls/matchFouls30/3011.7 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

15 / 15 matches

1.4 goals/matchGoals scored15/151.4 goals/match

1.2 goals/matchGoals allowed15/15▲1.07 goals/match

—Expected goals1/2—

13.9 shots/match▲Shots15/159.53 shots/match

3.53 shots/matchShots on target15/15▲4.07 shots/match

51.1%Possession15/1549.3%

6.47 corners/matchCorners15/153.33 corners/match

2 cards/matchCards14/132 cards/match

12.5 fouls/matchFouls15/1513.3 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

14.8 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/114 days

0 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready

Season samples30 / 30home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.

Analysis cutoff: Sun, 5 Apr 2026, 18:15 UTC · analysis-v4

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Match statistics

What the record shows

Valencia's recent record differs from the season

Valencia have a visible home split

Head-to-head

Values, percentiles and samples

How the teams compare

Possession control

Attacking volume

Defensive resistance

Directness proxy

Physicality

Set-piece relevance

Tempo and pressure proxy

Season, last 10 and last 5

Last 5

Last 10

Season

Home and away samples

Home team at home / away team away

Rest and recent workload

How much supports this analysis

Known unknowns

Related matches

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