PitchMath
La Liga · 2025Campo de Futbol de Vallecas

Rayo Vallecano 1–0 Elche · La Liga

1–0Historical match

Elche

LDLLW

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Rayo Vallecano won 1–0.

Shots
219
Shots on target
54
Expected goals
1.370.44
Possession
60%40%

Full time

What the match recorded

Rayo Vallecano beat Elche 1–0. Recorded in this match (Rayo Vallecano – Elche): shots 21–9, shots on target 5–4, expected goals 1.37–0.44, possession 60%–40%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Rayo Vallecano's recent record differs from the season

weak

Rayo Vallecano's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.97 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.2 goals/match0.97 goals/match1.21 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Elche have a visible away split

moderate

Elche's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

8.4 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season11.1 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots8.4 shots/match11.1 shots/match11.8 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Rayo Vallecano show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Rayo Vallecano's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

13.6 shots/match ▲ShotsRayo Vallecano · Elche11.1 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricRayo VallecanoElcheBaseline
Shots13.6 shots/match11.1 shots/match11.8 shots/match
Shots against12 shots/match14.6 shots/match12.5 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots21 shots9 shotsRayo Vallecano 21 shots, Elche 9 shots
  • Shots on target5 shots4 shotsRayo Vallecano 5 shots, Elche 4 shots
  • Expected goals1.37 xG0.44 xGRayo Vallecano 1.37 xG, Elche 0.44 xG
  • Possession60%40%Rayo Vallecano 60%, Elche 40%
  • Corners9 corners4 cornersRayo Vallecano 9 corners, Elche 4 corners
  • Fouls17 fouls9 foulsRayo Vallecano 17 fouls, Elche 9 fouls
  • Yellow cards0 cards4 cardsRayo Vallecano 0 cards, Elche 4 cards

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Rafa Mir · Elche · 18′ · 0.01 xG · on targetÁlvaro Rodriguez · Elche · 47′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedRafa Mir · Elche · 2′ · 0.02 xG · on targetTete Morente · Elche · 13′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedIsi Palazón · Rayo Vallecano · 30′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedRafa Mir · Elche · 31′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedFlorian Lejeune · Rayo Vallecano · 49′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedPedro Díaz · Rayo Vallecano · 70′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJosep Chavarría · Rayo Vallecano · 71′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJorge de Frutos · Rayo Vallecano · 72′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedÁlvaro García · Rayo Vallecano · 9′ · 0.03 xG · on targetUnai López · Rayo Vallecano · 29′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJorge de Frutos · Rayo Vallecano · 45′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedUnai López · Rayo Vallecano · 58′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedAndrei Rațiu · Rayo Vallecano · 71′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedFlorian Lejeune · Rayo Vallecano · 77′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedRafa Mir · Elche · 11′ · 0.05 xG · on targetPedro Bigas · Elche · 17′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedJosep Chavarría · Rayo Vallecano · 46′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedJorge de Frutos · Rayo Vallecano · 60′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedÁlvaro García · Rayo Vallecano · 65′ · 0.06 xG · on targetJosep Chavarría · Rayo Vallecano · 61′ · 0.07 xG · on targetFlorian Lejeune · Rayo Vallecano · 24′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedÁlvaro Rodriguez · Elche · 18′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedJorge de Frutos · Rayo Vallecano · 25′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedPedro Díaz · Rayo Vallecano · 68′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedJorge de Frutos · Rayo Vallecano · 33′ · 0.14 xG · on targetAdrià Pedrosa · Elche · 46′ · 0.17 xG · on targetRandy Nteka · Rayo Vallecano · 74′ · 0.21 xG · goalÁlvaro García · Rayo Vallecano · 34′ · 0.22 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Rayo Vallecano: 21 shots, 5 on target, 1.37 xG. Elche: 9 shots, 4 on target, 0.44 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.751.50′HT90′Randy Nteka · Rayo Vallecano · 74′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Rayo Vallecano 1.37 xG · Elche 0.44 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

2Rayo Vallecano
0Draws
3Elche
Elche — Rayo Vallecano · La Liga4–0
Elche — Rayo Vallecano · La Liga4–0
Rayo Vallecano — Elche · La Liga2–1
Elche — Rayo Vallecano · La Liga2–1
Rayo Vallecano — Elche · La Liga2–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Rayo Vallecano favored in 8 of 11 directional metrics · Elche in 3

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Rayo Vallecano30 matchesElche30 matches
0.97 goals/matchGoals scored30/30▲ 1.27 goals/match
1.17 goals/match ▲Goals allowed30/301.57 goals/match
1.31 xG/match ▲Expected goals30/301.15 xG/match
13.6 shots/match ▲Shots30/3011.1 shots/match
4.57 shots/match ▲Shots on target30/303.93 shots/match
53.7%Possession30/30● 57.7%
6 corners/match ●Corners30/303.67 corners/match
2.9 cards/matchCards29/282.21 cards/match
13.2 fouls/matchFouls30/3012.9 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples30 / 30home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Fri, 3 Apr 2026, 23:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in La Liga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsRayo VallecanoElche
CompetitionLa LigaLa Liga 2025/26
Head-to-headRayo Vallecano — Elche
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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