PitchMath
La Liga · 2025Fri, 6 Mar 2026, 20:00 UTCFull timeEstadio Abanca BalaídosFull-time recap
1–2Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricCelta VigoReal Madrid
Shots8 shots/match14 shots/match▲
Shots on target4 shots/match▲3 shots/match
Possession37%63%
Corners1 corners/match6 corners/match
Fouls4 fouls/match12 fouls/match
Yellow cards1 cards/match▲2 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Real Madrid. A second useful context is: Real Madrid's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Real Madrid.

5 days▲Rest daysCelta Vigo · Real Madrid4 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricCelta VigoReal MadridBaseline
Rest days5 days4 days—
Matches last 14 days2 matches2 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Real Madrid show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Real Madrid's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

10.9 shots/match▲ShotsCelta Vigo · Real Madrid18.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricCelta VigoReal MadridBaseline
Shots10.9 shots/match18.3 shots/match11.6 shots/match
Shots against11.7 shots/match10.1 shots/match12.7 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Real Madrid's recent record differs from the season

weak

Real Madrid's last-five shots average is below their season average.

13.8 shots/match▲ShotsLast 5 · Season18.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots13.8 shots/match18.3 shots/match11.6 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Celta Vigo
0Draws
0Real Madrid
Real Madrid — Celta Vigo · La Liga0–2

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Celta Vigo favored in 1 of 14 directional metrics · Real Madrid in 8 · 5 too close

1.37 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 27/27▲2.07 goals/match
1.11 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 27/27▲0.85 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
10.9 shots/matchShotsseason · 27/27▲18.3 shots/match
11.7 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 27/27▲10.1 shots/match
4.15 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 27/27▲6.81 shots/match
3.96 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 27/27▲3.04 shots/match
50.5%Possessionseason · 27/2759.9%
4.15 corners/matchCornersseason · 27/276.56 corners/match
4.7 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 27/27▲3.52 corners/match
1.89 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 27/272.11 cards/match
11.2 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 27/2710.1 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
30%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 27/27▲41%
85%Scoring frequencyseason · 27/2789%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Celta Vigo62.5
Real Madrid92.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Celta Vigo49.2
Real Madrid92.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Celta Vigo72.5
Real Madrid94.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Celta Vigo17.5
Real Madrid97.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Celta Vigo17.5
Real Madrid15
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Celta Vigo32.5
Real Madrid87.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Celta Vigo33.8
Real Madrid70
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.6 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲1.8 goals/match
1.4 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.2 shots/matchShots5/513.8 shots/match
5 shots/matchShots on target5/55.2 shots/match
50.2%Possession5/562.6%
4.6 corners/matchCorners5/57 corners/match
1.2 cards/matchCards5/52.6 cards/match
8.6 fouls/matchFouls5/511.2 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.7 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲2.2 goals/match
1.1 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲0.7 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12 shots/matchShots10/10▲16.2 shots/match
5 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲6.4 shots/match
50.7%Possession10/1061.2%
4.3 corners/matchCorners10/106.9 corners/match
1.7 cards/matchCards10/102.1 cards/match
10.3 fouls/matchFouls10/1010.7 fouls/match

Window

Season

27 / 27 matches
1.37 goals/matchGoals scored27/27▲2.07 goals/match
1.11 goals/matchGoals allowed27/27▲0.85 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10.9 shots/matchShots27/27▲18.3 shots/match
4.15 shots/matchShots on target27/27▲6.81 shots/match
50.5%Possession27/2759.9%
4.15 corners/matchCorners27/276.56 corners/match
1.89 cards/matchCards27/272.11 cards/match
11.2 fouls/matchFouls27/2710.1 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

14 / 14 matches
1.43 goals/matchGoals scored14/14▲1.93 goals/match
1.21 goals/matchGoals allowed14/14▲1 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12 shots/matchShots14/14▲17.2 shots/match
4.21 shots/matchShots on target14/14▲6.14 shots/match
52.2%Possession14/1458.6%
4.71 corners/matchCorners14/146.29 corners/match
1.79 cards/matchCards14/141.5 cards/match
10 fouls/matchFouls14/149.86 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

5 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/14 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples27 / 27home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 7 Mar 2026, 00:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsCelta VigoReal Madrid
CompetitionLa Liga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

Make a graphic from this match

Creator Studio builds a branded post from this match's recorded data, with its evidence grade and source cutoff carried into the export.

Create a graphic from this match