PitchMath
La Liga · 2025Sat, 3 Jan 2026, 13:00 UTCFull timeEstadio Abanca BalaídosFull-time recap
4–1Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricCelta VigoValencia
Shots12 shots/match16 shots/match▲
Shots on target6 shots/match▲5 shots/match
Possession40%60%
Corners2 corners/match4 corners/match
Fouls10 fouls/match9 fouls/match
Yellow cards1 cards/match▲3 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Valencia's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. A second useful context is: Celta Vigo's last-five shots average is below their season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Valencia have a visible away split

moderate

Valencia's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

8.67 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season11.4 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots8.67 shots/match11.4 shots/match11.4 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Celta Vigo's recent record differs from the season

weak

Celta Vigo's last-five shots average is below their season average.

8.2 shots/match▲ShotsLast 5 · Season10.4 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots8.2 shots/match10.4 shots/match11.4 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Celta Vigo favored in 4 of 14 directional metrics · Valencia in 1 · 9 too close

1.33 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 18/180.94 goals/match
1.11 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 18/181.67 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
10.4 shots/matchShotsseason · 18/18▲11.4 shots/match
12.7 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 18/1812.3 shots/match
3.78 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 18/182.94 shots/match
4.5 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 18/184.67 shots/match
49.8%Possessionseason · 18/1849.5%
3.94 corners/matchCornersseason · 18/185.33 corners/match
4.67 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 18/184.56 corners/match
1.94 cards/matchCardsseason · 18/182 cards/match
11.7 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 18/1811.8 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
22%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 18/1822%
83%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 18/1872%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Celta Vigo62.5
Valencia47.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Celta Vigo40.8
Valencia32.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Celta Vigo50.8
Valencia30.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Celta Vigo22.5
Valencia32.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Celta Vigo23.8
Valencia32.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Celta Vigo32.5
Valencia67.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Celta Vigo31.2
Valencia43.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.6 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51 goals/match
0.4 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.8 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
8.2 shots/matchShots5/5▲13.4 shots/match
3.8 shots/match▲Shots on target5/52.8 shots/match
47.4%Possession5/555.4%
2.2 corners/matchCorners5/56 corners/match
1.4 cards/matchCards5/52 cards/match
10.4 fouls/matchFouls5/510.2 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.7 goals/match▲Goals scored10/100.7 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.6 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
8.8 shots/matchShots10/10▲12.2 shots/match
3.8 shots/match▲Shots on target10/102.7 shots/match
46.8%Possession10/1050.8%
2.2 corners/matchCorners10/105.2 corners/match
2.2 cards/matchCards10/102.3 cards/match
11.5 fouls/matchFouls10/1012 fouls/match

Window

Season

18 / 18 matches
1.33 goals/match▲Goals scored18/180.94 goals/match
1.11 goals/match▲Goals allowed18/181.67 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10.4 shots/matchShots18/18▲11.4 shots/match
3.78 shots/match▲Shots on target18/182.94 shots/match
49.8%Possession18/1849.5%
3.94 corners/matchCorners18/185.33 corners/match
1.94 cards/matchCards18/182 cards/match
11.7 fouls/matchFouls18/1811.8 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

10 / 9 matches
1.3 goals/match▲Goals scored10/90.67 goals/match
1.3 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/92.44 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.1 shots/match▲Shots10/98.67 shots/match
3.7 shots/match▲Shots on target10/92.44 shots/match
53.1%Possession10/944.6%
4.6 corners/matchCorners10/93.89 corners/match
1.7 cards/matchCards10/91.78 cards/match
10.9 fouls/matchFouls10/910.9 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

14 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/114.7 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/10 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples18 / 18home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 3 Jan 2026, 17:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsCelta VigoValencia
CompetitionLa Liga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

Make a graphic from this match

Creator Studio builds a branded post from this match's recorded data, with its evidence grade and source cutoff carried into the export.

Create a graphic from this match