La Liga · 2025Sat, 22 Nov 2025, 13:00 UTCFull timeEstadio MendizorrotzaFull-time recap

Alaves

WDLWL

0–1Full-time recap

Celta Vigo

DDWWL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Alaves	Celta Vigo
Shots	5 shots/match	7 shots/match▲
Shots on target	2 shots/match	4 shots/match▲
Possession	52%	48%
Corners	4 corners/match	2 corners/match
Fouls	21 fouls/match	15 fouls/match
Yellow cards	2 cards/match	2 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Alaves's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. No second pattern clears the sample and coverage gates. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Alaves's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Alaves's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.4 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.85 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	0.4 goals/match	0.85 goals/match	1.13 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Alaves favored in 5 of 14 directional metrics · Celta Vigo in 4 · 5 too close

0.85 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 13/13▲1.23 goals/match

0.92 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 13/131.38 goals/match

—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—

—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—

11.3 shots/matchShotsseason · 13/1311.2 shots/match

10.7 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 13/1312.1 shots/match

3.54 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 13/13▲3.77 shots/match

3.23 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 13/134.77 shots/match

51.4%Possessionseason · 13/1350.8%

5.38 corners/matchCornersseason · 13/134.62 corners/match

4.08 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 13/134.69 corners/match

2.54 cards/matchCardsseason · 13/13▲2.15 cards/match

16 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 13/1312.2 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

15%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 13/138%

54%Scoring frequencyseason · 13/13▲92%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Alaves62.5

Celta Vigo57.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Alaves32.5

Celta Vigo50

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Alaves80.8

Celta Vigo41.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Alaves27.5

Celta Vigo37.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Alaves87.5

Celta Vigo40

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Alaves67.5

Celta Vigo37.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Alaves61.2

Celta Vigo42.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

0.4 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲1.8 goals/match

0.8 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.6 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

11.4 shots/match▲Shots5/59.4 shots/match

3.2 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲3.8 shots/match

52.6%Possession5/546.2%

3.6 corners/matchCorners5/52.2 corners/match

2.8 cards/matchCards5/53 cards/match

14.8 fouls/matchFouls5/512.6 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches

0.8 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1.4 goals/match

0.9 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.4 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

11.6 shots/matchShots10/1011.3 shots/match

3.5 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲3.9 shots/match

51.5%Possession10/1049.4%

5.7 corners/matchCorners10/103.7 corners/match

2.8 cards/matchCards10/102.1 cards/match

16.6 fouls/matchFouls10/1011.8 fouls/match

Window

Season

13 / 13 matches

0.85 goals/matchGoals scored13/13▲1.23 goals/match

0.92 goals/match▲Goals allowed13/131.38 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

11.3 shots/matchShots13/1311.2 shots/match

3.54 shots/matchShots on target13/13▲3.77 shots/match

51.4%Possession13/1350.8%

5.38 corners/matchCorners13/134.62 corners/match

2.54 cards/matchCards13/132.15 cards/match

16 fouls/matchFouls13/1312.2 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

7 / 6 matches

1.29 goals/matchGoals scored7/6▲1.5 goals/match

1 goals/match▲Goals allowed7/61.17 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

12 shots/match▲Shots7/610.5 shots/match

3.57 shots/matchShots on target7/6▲4 shots/match

52.3%Possession7/646.7%

5.86 corners/matchCorners7/63.5 corners/match

2 cards/matchCards7/62.67 cards/match

15.1 fouls/matchFouls7/613.7 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

14 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/112.7 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready

Season samples13 / 13home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 22 Nov 2025, 17:00 UTC · analysis-v4

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