PitchMath
La Liga · 2025Sun, 9 Nov 2025, 15:15 UTCFull timeCampo de Futbol de VallecasFull-time recap
0–0Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricRayo VallecanoReal Madrid
Shots13 shots/match21 shots/match▲
Shots on target2 shots/match5 shots/match▲
Possession46%54%
Corners5 corners/match8 corners/match
Fouls17 fouls/match7 fouls/match
Yellow cards3 cards/match2 cards/match▲

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Real Madrid's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. A second useful context is: Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Real Madrid show a distinct attacking-volume record

strong

Real Madrid's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

12.8 shots/match▲ShotsRayo Vallecano · Real Madrid19.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricRayo VallecanoReal MadridBaseline
Shots12.8 shots/match19.8 shots/match12 shots/match
Shots against12.3 shots/match10 shots/match12.2 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Both teams have elevated corners records

strong

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

6.17 corners/match▲CornersRayo Vallecano · Real Madrid6.08 corners/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

MetricRayo VallecanoReal MadridBaseline
Corners6.17 corners/match6.08 corners/match4.83 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

Real Madrid's recent record differs from the season

weak

Real Madrid's last-five shots average is above their season average.

22.8 shots/match▲ShotsLast 5 · Season19.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots22.8 shots/match19.8 shots/match12 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Rayo Vallecano favored in 0 of 14 directional metrics · Real Madrid in 10 · 4 too close

1 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 12/12▲2.17 goals/match
1.17 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 12/12▲0.83 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
12.8 shots/matchShotsseason · 12/12▲19.8 shots/match
12.3 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 12/12▲10 shots/match
4.08 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 12/12▲7.33 shots/match
4.25 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 12/12▲2.83 shots/match
52.7%Possessionseason · 12/1260.4%
6.17 corners/matchCornersseason · 12/126.08 corners/match
5.42 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 12/12▲3.33 corners/match
2.42 cards/matchCardsseason · 12/12▲2.08 cards/match
13.7 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 12/1210.2 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
33%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 12/12▲50%
58%Scoring frequencyseason · 12/12▲92%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Rayo Vallecano77.5
Real Madrid92.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Rayo Vallecano50
Real Madrid92.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Rayo Vallecano49.2
Real Madrid90.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Rayo Vallecano52.5
Real Madrid92.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Rayo Vallecano76.2
Real Madrid23.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Rayo Vallecano82.5
Real Madrid77.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Rayo Vallecano68.8
Real Madrid68.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲2 goals/match
0.8 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲0.4 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.6 shots/matchShots5/5▲22.8 shots/match
3.4 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲8.6 shots/match
49.6%Possession5/559.4%
5.2 corners/matchCorners5/57 corners/match
1.6 cards/matchCards5/52.4 cards/match
16 fouls/matchFouls5/510.6 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
0.9 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲2.2 goals/match
1.2 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.1 shots/matchShots10/10▲19.3 shots/match
4.3 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲7.3 shots/match
51.7%Possession10/1058.9%
6.4 corners/matchCorners10/105.7 corners/match
2.4 cards/matchCards10/102.3 cards/match
13.4 fouls/matchFouls10/1010.5 fouls/match

Window

Season

12 / 12 matches
1 goals/matchGoals scored12/12▲2.17 goals/match
1.17 goals/matchGoals allowed12/12▲0.83 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.8 shots/matchShots12/12▲19.8 shots/match
4.08 shots/matchShots on target12/12▲7.33 shots/match
52.7%Possession12/1260.4%
6.17 corners/matchCorners12/126.08 corners/match
2.42 cards/matchCards12/122.08 cards/match
13.7 fouls/matchFouls12/1210.2 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

5 / 6 matches
0.6 goals/matchGoals scored5/6▲2 goals/match
0.6 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/61.17 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.6 shots/matchShots5/6▲19.3 shots/match
4.8 shots/matchShots on target5/6▲7.17 shots/match
53.2%Possession5/659.5%
7.6 corners/matchCorners5/65.67 corners/match
2.6 cards/matchCards5/61.83 cards/match
13 fouls/matchFouls5/69.17 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

8.09 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17.8 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples12 / 12home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 9 Nov 2025, 19:15 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsRayo VallecanoReal Madrid
CompetitionLa Liga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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