PitchMath
La Liga · 2025Sun, 5 Oct 2025, 16:30 UTCFull timeReale ArenaFull-time recap
0–1Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricReal SociedadRayo Vallecano
Shots10 shots/match▲7 shots/match
Shots on target3 shots/match▲2 shots/match
Possession51%49%
Corners7 corners/match5 corners/match
Fouls13 fouls/match21 fouls/match
Yellow cards1 cards/match▲2 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline. A second useful context is: Rayo Vallecano's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Both teams have elevated corners records

moderate

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

7.25 corners/match▲CornersReal Sociedad · Rayo Vallecano6.63 corners/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

MetricReal SociedadRayo VallecanoBaseline
Corners7.25 corners/match6.63 corners/match5.19 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

Rayo Vallecano's recent record differs from the season

weak

Rayo Vallecano's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.8 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.8 goals/match1 goals/match1.19 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Rayo Vallecano show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Rayo Vallecano's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

14.3 shots/match▲ShotsReal Sociedad · Rayo Vallecano12.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricReal SociedadRayo VallecanoBaseline
Shots14.3 shots/match12.8 shots/match11.8 shots/match
Shots against14.1 shots/match10.3 shots/match11.8 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Real Sociedad favored in 3 of 14 directional metrics · Rayo Vallecano in 4 · 7 too close

0.88 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 8/8▲1 goals/match
1.5 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 8/8▲1.25 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
14.3 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 8/812.8 shots/match
14.1 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 8/8▲10.3 shots/match
4.25 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 8/84.25 shots/match
4.38 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 8/8▲4.13 shots/match
52.4%Possessionseason · 8/854.1%
7.25 corners/matchCornersseason · 8/86.63 corners/match
4.63 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 8/84.75 corners/match
2.25 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 8/82.88 cards/match
15 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 8/813.1 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
13%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 8/813%
75%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 8/863%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Real Sociedad62.5
Rayo Vallecano77.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Real Sociedad51.7
Rayo Vallecano50.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Real Sociedad30.8
Rayo Vallecano59.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Real Sociedad72.5
Rayo Vallecano57.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Real Sociedad67.5
Rayo Vallecano76.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Real Sociedad97.5
Rayo Vallecano82.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Real Sociedad80
Rayo Vallecano66.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
0.8 goals/matchGoals scored5/50.8 goals/match
1.6 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1.4 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.6 shots/matchShots5/513.6 shots/match
3.6 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲4.4 shots/match
50.8%Possession5/555%
7.2 corners/matchCorners5/56.8 corners/match
2.6 cards/matchCards5/52.8 cards/match
15 fouls/matchFouls5/511.8 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

8 / 8 matches
0.88 goals/matchGoals scored8/8▲1 goals/match
1.5 goals/matchGoals allowed8/8▲1.25 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.3 shots/match▲Shots8/812.8 shots/match
4.25 shots/matchShots on target8/84.25 shots/match
52.4%Possession8/854.1%
7.25 corners/matchCorners8/86.63 corners/match
2.25 cards/matchCards8/82.88 cards/match
15 fouls/matchFouls8/813.1 fouls/match

Window

Season

8 / 8 matches
0.88 goals/matchGoals scored8/8▲1 goals/match
1.5 goals/matchGoals allowed8/8▲1.25 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.3 shots/match▲Shots8/812.8 shots/match
4.25 shots/matchShots on target8/84.25 shots/match
52.4%Possession8/854.1%
7.25 corners/matchCorners8/86.63 corners/match
2.25 cards/matchCards8/82.88 cards/match
15 fouls/matchFouls8/813.1 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

4 / 5 matches
1 goals/matchGoals scored4/5▲1.2 goals/match
1.25 goals/match▲Goals allowed4/51.4 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
16.3 shots/match▲Shots4/511.4 shots/match
4.5 shots/match▲Shots on target4/53.4 shots/match
60.3%Possession4/553.4%
8.75 corners/matchCorners4/55.4 corners/match
1.75 cards/matchCards4/52.8 cards/match
14.8 fouls/matchFouls4/514 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17.19 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited
Season samples8 / 8home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 5 Oct 2025, 20:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsReal SociedadRayo Vallecano
CompetitionLa Liga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

Make a graphic from this match

Creator Studio builds a branded post from this match's recorded data, with its evidence grade and source cutoff carried into the export.

Create a graphic from this match