PitchMath
La Liga · 2025Sun, 5 Oct 2025, 19:00 UTCFull timeEstadio Abanca BalaídosFull-time recap
1–1Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricCelta VigoAtletico Madrid
Shots18 shots/match▲6 shots/match
Shots on target4 shots/match▲1 shots/match
Possession59%41%
Corners6 corners/match3 corners/match
Fouls7 fouls/match10 fouls/match
Yellow cards1 cards/match▲3 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Atletico Madrid's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Celta Vigo's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Atletico Madrid's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Atletico Madrid's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.4 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.88 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2.4 goals/match1.88 goals/match1.19 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Celta Vigo have a visible home split

moderate

Celta Vigo's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

14.8 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season12.4 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots14.8 shots/match12.4 shots/match11.8 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Both teams have elevated corners records

moderate

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

6.13 corners/match▲CornersCelta Vigo · Atletico Madrid6.38 corners/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

MetricCelta VigoAtletico MadridBaseline
Corners6.13 corners/match6.38 corners/match5.19 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Celta Vigo favored in 1 of 14 directional metrics · Atletico Madrid in 7 · 6 too close

0.88 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 8/8▲1.88 goals/match
1.25 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 8/81.25 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
12.4 shots/matchShotsseason · 8/812.8 shots/match
11 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 8/8▲8.63 shots/match
3.75 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 8/8▲5.25 shots/match
4.25 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 8/8▲2.75 shots/match
53.6%Possessionseason · 8/854.4%
6.13 corners/matchCornersseason · 8/86.38 corners/match
4.13 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 8/8▲3 corners/match
1.63 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 8/82.63 cards/match
11.9 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 8/811.6 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
0%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 8/8▲13%
88%Scoring frequencyseason · 8/8▲100%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Celta Vigo72.5
Atletico Madrid82.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Celta Vigo37.5
Atletico Madrid77.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Celta Vigo53.3
Atletico Madrid80.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Celta Vigo42.5
Atletico Madrid47.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Celta Vigo27.5
Atletico Madrid57.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Celta Vigo67.5
Atletico Madrid72.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Celta Vigo50.6
Atletico Madrid64.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲2.4 goals/match
1.2 goals/matchGoals allowed5/51.2 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.2 shots/match▲Shots5/511.8 shots/match
4 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲5.2 shots/match
52.6%Possession5/551.4%
5.2 corners/matchCorners5/56.4 corners/match
1.2 cards/matchCards5/53 cards/match
11 fouls/matchFouls5/510.2 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

8 / 8 matches
0.88 goals/matchGoals scored8/8▲1.88 goals/match
1.25 goals/matchGoals allowed8/81.25 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.4 shots/matchShots8/812.8 shots/match
3.75 shots/matchShots on target8/8▲5.25 shots/match
53.6%Possession8/854.4%
6.13 corners/matchCorners8/86.38 corners/match
1.63 cards/matchCards8/82.63 cards/match
11.9 fouls/matchFouls8/811.6 fouls/match

Window

Season

8 / 8 matches
0.88 goals/matchGoals scored8/8▲1.88 goals/match
1.25 goals/matchGoals allowed8/81.25 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.4 shots/matchShots8/812.8 shots/match
3.75 shots/matchShots on target8/8▲5.25 shots/match
53.6%Possession8/854.4%
6.13 corners/matchCorners8/86.38 corners/match
1.63 cards/matchCards8/82.63 cards/match
11.9 fouls/matchFouls8/811.6 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

5 / 4 matches
0.8 goals/matchGoals scored5/4▲1 goals/match
1.2 goals/matchGoals allowed5/41.25 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.8 shots/match▲Shots5/412 shots/match
4.2 shots/matchShots on target5/4▲4.5 shots/match
60%Possession5/454.5%
7.2 corners/matchCorners5/44.5 corners/match
1.2 cards/matchCards5/42.75 cards/match
10.6 fouls/matchFouls5/411 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.2 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/18.2 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited
Season samples8 / 8home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 5 Oct 2025, 23:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsCelta VigoAtletico Madrid
CompetitionLa Liga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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