Bundesliga · 2025Sun, 12 Apr 2026, 17:30 UTCFull timeMewa ArenaFull-time recap

FSV Mainz 05

DDWWW

0–1Full-time recap

SC Freiburg

LDLWL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	FSV Mainz 05	SC Freiburg
Shots	10 shots/match▲	8 shots/match
Shots on target	3 shots/match	3 shots/match
Expected goals	0.63 xG/match▲	0.57 xG/match
Possession	51%	49%
Corners	6 corners/match	4 corners/match
Fouls	10 fouls/match	13 fouls/match
Yellow cards	1 cards/match▲	3 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: FSV Mainz 05's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: FSV Mainz 05's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: Lineup availability and tactical choices are not in the retained data.

FSV Mainz 05's recent record differs from the season

moderate

FSV Mainz 05's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.21 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	1.6 goals/match	1.21 goals/match	1.4 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

FSV Mainz 05 have a visible home split

moderate

FSV Mainz 05's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

13 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season11.2 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

Metric	Home only	Season	Baseline
Shots	13 shots/match	11.2 shots/match	12.8 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0FSV Mainz 05

0Draws

1SC Freiburg

30 Nov 2025SC Freiburg — FSV Mainz 05 · Bundesliga4–0

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

FSV Mainz 05 favored in 1 of 14 directional metrics · SC Freiburg in 9 · 4 too close

1.21 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 29/29▲1.45 goals/match

1.52 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 29/291.62 goals/match

1.36 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 4/41.34 xG/match

0.98 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 4/40.93 xG/match

11.2 shots/matchShotsseason · 29/29▲12.6 shots/match

14.4 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 29/29▲13.7 shots/match

3.72 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 29/29▲4.28 shots/match

5 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 29/29▲4.59 shots/match

43.3%Possessionseason · 29/2948%

5 corners/matchCornersseason · 29/294.45 corners/match

4.52 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 29/29▲4.17 corners/match

2.52 cards/matchCardsseason · 25/25▲1.72 cards/match

11 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 29/299.38 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

10%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 29/29▲21%

66%Scoring frequencyseason · 29/29▲72%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

FSV Mainz 0513.9

SC Freiburg52.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

FSV Mainz 0521.3

SC Freiburg47.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

FSV Mainz 0539.8

SC Freiburg51.9

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

FSV Mainz 0552.8

SC Freiburg58.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

FSV Mainz 0572.2

SC Freiburg22.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 93%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

FSV Mainz 0563.9

SC Freiburg30.6

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

FSV Mainz 0539.6

SC Freiburg34.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

1.6 goals/matchGoals scored5/51.6 goals/match

1 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.6 goals/match

1.36 xG/matchExpected goals4/41.34 xG/match

11 shots/matchShots5/5▲15 shots/match

4.2 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲5.6 shots/match

38.6%Possession5/550.2%

4.6 corners/matchCorners5/54.4 corners/match

—Cards1/1—

8.2 fouls/matchFouls5/58.2 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches

1.4 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101.1 goals/match

1.2 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.5 goals/match

1.36 xG/matchExpected goals4/41.34 xG/match

11.1 shots/matchShots10/10▲12 shots/match

4.3 shots/matchShots on target10/104.3 shots/match

38.6%Possession10/1042.8%

4.4 corners/matchCorners10/104.3 corners/match

2.17 cards/matchCards6/61.5 cards/match

10 fouls/matchFouls10/109 fouls/match

Window

Season

29 / 29 matches

1.21 goals/matchGoals scored29/29▲1.45 goals/match

1.52 goals/match▲Goals allowed29/291.62 goals/match

1.36 xG/matchExpected goals4/41.34 xG/match

11.2 shots/matchShots29/29▲12.6 shots/match

3.72 shots/matchShots on target29/29▲4.28 shots/match

43.3%Possession29/2948%

5 corners/matchCorners29/294.45 corners/match

2.52 cards/matchCards25/251.72 cards/match

11 fouls/matchFouls29/299.38 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

15 / 15 matches

1.13 goals/match▲Goals scored15/151.07 goals/match

1.2 goals/match▲Goals allowed15/151.87 goals/match

—Expected goals2/2—

13 shots/match▲Shots15/1510.8 shots/match

3.93 shots/match▲Shots on target15/153.27 shots/match

46.8%Possession15/1544.7%

6.27 corners/matchCorners15/153.93 corners/match

2.08 cards/matchCards13/131.54 cards/match

11.7 fouls/matchFouls15/159.93 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

8.17 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/18.17 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready

Season samples29 / 29home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.

Analysis cutoff: Sun, 12 Apr 2026, 21:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Make a graphic from this match

Creator Studio builds a branded post from this match's recorded data, with its evidence grade and source cutoff carried into the export.

Create a graphic from this match

Match statistics

What the record shows

FSV Mainz 05's recent record differs from the season

FSV Mainz 05 have a visible home split

Head-to-head

Values, percentiles and samples

How the teams compare

Possession control

Attacking volume

Defensive resistance

Directness proxy

Physicality

Set-piece relevance

Tempo and pressure proxy

Season, last 10 and last 5

Last 5

Last 10

Season

Home and away samples

Home team at home / away team away

Rest and recent workload

How much supports this analysis

Known unknowns

Related matches

Make a graphic from this match