PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2025Fri, 10 Apr 2026, 17:00 UTCFull timeStade Jean BouinFull-time recap
4–1Full-time recap

Monaco

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This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricParis FCMonaco
Shots12 shots/match18 shots/match▲
Shots on target6 shots/match▲5 shots/match
Expected goals2.51 xG/match▲2.23 xG/match
Possession35%65%
Corners1 corners/match11 corners/match
Fouls5 fouls/match6 fouls/match
Yellow cards1 cards/match0 cards/match▲

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Lamine Camara · Monaco · 11′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedWout Faes · Monaco · 12′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJordan Teze · Monaco · 16′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedAnsu Fati · Monaco · 58′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedLuca Koleosho · Paris FC · 71′ · 0.04 xG · goalSimon Adingra · Monaco · 63′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedAlimami Gory · Paris FC · 90′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedAnsu Fati · Monaco · 21′ · 0.06 xG · on targetFolarin Balogun · Monaco · 74′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedAnsu Fati · Monaco · 20′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedKrépin Diatta · Monaco · 66′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedSimon Adingra · Monaco · 20′ · 0.09 xG · on targetAladji Bamba · Monaco · 40′ · 0.10 xG · on targetAnsu Fati · Monaco · 45′ · 0.10 xG · on targetJonathan Ikoné · Paris FC · 50′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedLamine Camara · Monaco · 15′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedFolarin Balogun · Monaco · 21′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedMarshall Munetsi · Paris FC · 47′ · 0.11 xG · on targetCiro Immobile · Paris FC · 47′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedMamadou Coulibaly · Monaco · 45′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedAnsu Fati · Monaco · 63′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedLuca Koleosho · Paris FC · 71′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedFolarin Balogun · Monaco · 15′ · 0.15 xG · off target or blockedMaxime López · Paris FC · 23′ · 0.19 xG · off target or blockedJonathan Ikoné · Paris FC · 47′ · 0.20 xG · off target or blockedCiro Immobile · Paris FC · 8′ · 0.25 xG · goalJonathan Ikoné · Paris FC · 4′ · 0.36 xG · goalFolarin Balogun · Monaco · 36′ · 0.43 xG · goalFolarin Balogun · Monaco · 34′ · 0.44 xG · off target or blockedMaxime López · Paris FC · 14′ · 0.45 xG · on targetJonathan Ikoné · Paris FC · 21′ · 0.53 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Paris FC: 12 shots, 6 on target, 2.54 xG. Monaco: 19 shots, 5 on target, 2.21 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.530′HT90′Jonathan Ikoné · Paris FC · 4′Ciro Immobile · Paris FC · 8′Jonathan Ikoné · Paris FC · 21′Luca Koleosho · Paris FC · 71′Folarin Balogun · Monaco · 36′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Paris FC 2.54 xG · Monaco 2.21 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Paris FC's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Paris FC's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: Lineup availability and tactical choices are not in the retained data.

Paris FC's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Paris FC's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.8 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.28 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.8 goals/match1.28 goals/match1.38 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Paris FC have a visible home split

moderate

Paris FC's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

13.4 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season11.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots13.4 shots/match11.3 shots/match11.4 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Paris FC
0Draws
0Monaco
Monaco — Paris FC · Ligue 10–1

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Paris FC favored in 3 of 14 directional metrics · Monaco in 5 · 6 too close

1.28 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 29/29▲1.72 goals/match
1.55 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 29/291.48 goals/match
1.46 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 4/41.99 xG/match
1.48 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 4/41.77 xG/match
11.3 shots/matchShotsseason · 29/29▲12.2 shots/match
12.6 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 29/2913.4 shots/match
3.72 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 29/29▲4.31 shots/match
4.03 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 29/294.45 shots/match
51.1%Possessionseason · 29/2952.7%
4.31 corners/matchCornersseason · 29/294.76 corners/match
5.59 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 29/29▲4.45 corners/match
2.27 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 26/262.58 cards/match
10.7 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 29/2912.9 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
24%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 29/2924%
72%Scoring frequencyseason · 29/29▲79%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Paris FC58.3
Monaco63.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Paris FC39.8
Monaco65.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Paris FC37.9
Monaco32.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Paris FC25
Monaco30.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Paris FC40.3
Monaco80.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 95%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Paris FC36.1
Monaco52.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Paris FC33.3
Monaco58.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.8 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲2 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.4 goals/match
1.46 xG/matchExpected goals4/4▲1.99 xG/match
11.6 shots/matchShots5/5▲12.4 shots/match
4.2 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲4.8 shots/match
41%Possession5/548%
4.4 corners/matchCorners5/54.4 corners/match
—Cards2/2—
8.8 fouls/matchFouls5/510.8 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.3 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲2.2 goals/match
1.3 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1 goals/match
1.46 xG/matchExpected goals4/4▲1.99 xG/match
10.6 shots/matchShots10/10▲11.8 shots/match
4.3 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲4.7 shots/match
45.1%Possession10/1050.9%
4.4 corners/matchCorners10/104.9 corners/match
2.86 cards/matchCards7/72.29 cards/match
9.4 fouls/matchFouls10/1011.6 fouls/match

Window

Season

29 / 29 matches
1.28 goals/matchGoals scored29/29▲1.72 goals/match
1.55 goals/matchGoals allowed29/291.48 goals/match
1.46 xG/matchExpected goals4/4▲1.99 xG/match
11.3 shots/matchShots29/29▲12.2 shots/match
3.72 shots/matchShots on target29/29▲4.31 shots/match
51.1%Possession29/2952.7%
4.31 corners/matchCorners29/294.76 corners/match
2.27 cards/matchCards26/262.58 cards/match
10.7 fouls/matchFouls29/2912.9 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

14 / 14 matches
1.57 goals/match▲Goals scored14/141.36 goals/match
1.79 goals/matchGoals allowed14/14▲1.64 goals/match
—Expected goals2/2—
13.4 shots/match▲Shots14/1412.1 shots/match
4.14 shots/matchShots on target14/144.07 shots/match
53.7%Possession14/1451.8%
5.5 corners/matchCorners14/145 corners/match
2.54 cards/matchCards13/133.08 cards/match
11 fouls/matchFouls14/1413.4 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

5.07 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/14.93 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples29 / 29home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Fri, 10 Apr 2026, 21:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsParis FCMonaco
CompetitionLigue 1
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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